Hard one to call. I'd like to see Pavlik fight at SMW before I have to vote on this one because even though I know that he fought Taylor at a catchweight just short of SMW Taylor himself has never fought up at that weight so he can't really be classed as a natural SMW yet and that means that Pavlik has not fought anyone who is a SMW. That said Joe is certainly not getting any younger and Pavlik seems to be getting stronger and stronger so at the moment I think I would just edge it for Pavlik.
(Especially after Joe takes a beating off Roy.)