I think this guy is making a ton of mistakes when he considers Mayweather. Just to name a few.

1. Mayweather does tend to bend at the waste, but its almost always under the jab and he moves in close and smothers his opponent.
2. When Mayweather fought Castillo he didn't use to hold or throw his right hand as much, now if a guy didn't throw punches Floyd would keep them away as best he could with jab, but he would also potshot and hold them if he became bothered.
3. THe thing about feinting a right then throwing a left against Floyd wouldn't work, he doesn't move his right hand over to block the cross, he uses his shoulder, that means his right hand is still there to block the left hook that is coming in, but more importantly he is usually moving back out of the range and the left hook would fall far short.
4. Mayweather's defense I don't think is probability based, at least not on a conscious level, I've seen guys use so many different rhythms and combinations and angles against him, and he dodges them all.
5. He is thinking that guys are using the wrong strategy when he isn't considering that Mayweather is adapting and making in-fight changes to his style.

I think you can beat Mayweather, but you have to be built like Hearns or Paul Williams, or Sugar Ray Robinson. Guys who are much taller with similar speed to Floyd. I think Paul WIlliam's one problem is that he is terrible against movement, whiel I think Floyd would back Manny up, I don't think he would try to stand and fight Williams, I think he would move away and pot shot Williams because he has awkward moments where he is easy to catch if you are quick enough.