Sergio "Maravilla" Martinez vs. Darren Barker Saturday October 1st

[Kev]

I'm looking forward to this fight. Obviously Barker is a huge underdog, but he will have a decent natural size advantage. He's the first natural middleweight Martinez has faced since Pavlik, and I'm not sure how close Pavlik was to his best that night, I think he had slipped quite badly personally.

Barker came back from a year out to beat Domenico Spada in a rather scrappy affair. Spada pushed Zabek pretty hard over two fights though, presumably coming close to beating first time around hence the rematch being made, (not seen the fights personally) and Zabek looked pretty decent against Chavez Jr, and in the eyes of some should have won that fight (I thought Chavez nicked it for the bodywork though)

So I'd say he's probably about as good as Chavez Jr and Zbik, which is current world level at middleweight. I'd give him a good shot to bear Chavez Jr and Sturm so he's a credible opponent for Martinez imo.

That said, he would need an outstanding night, and a lot of luck, to beat Martinez who is clearly considerably better than Chavez and Zabek.

My prediction is he puts in a very game performance, frustrates Martinez and catches him several times but will lose a unanimous decision. I'm thinking Kessler Calzahghe, style competitive. 117-111 116-112 type fight.

I'd be impressed if Martinez got him out of there though, I'm expecting a 12 round fight although Barker will likely get stopped by the referee as soon as he's in trouble, that's always the concern in fights like this, when the challenger, or less favoured guy, is given very few chances.

[J_C]

I think Bilbo is slightly higher on Barkers chances than is merited but a lot of what he said is fair enough. Barkers 2 European fights were stern tests for him and he got on his bike quite a lot in both also, wasnt very impressive.

I think Martinez's power is being a little over rated on the back of his last 2 performances but I would still favour the stoppage for this one rather than the distance. However a 12 round show wouldnt surprise me from Barker but I would be surprised if he won any more than a couple of rounds in doing so.

Barker can go the distance if he looks more towards survival in the second half of the fight. If he gives it a real go ala Macklin against Sturm, I see him getting stopped.

Bookies best odds for the method of victory for Martinez are

8/13 Stoppage
9/4 Points

Presumably Bilbo will be all over that 9/4. My own odds would be more like 5/6 stoppage, 7/4 pts fwiw.

Btw I hope Martinez's next fight is against Macklin, that would be a fantastic fight while it lasted (Macklin would get KO'd at some point)

[Kev]

I think Bilbo is slightly higher on Barkers chances than is merited but a lot of what he said is fair enough. Barkers 2 European fights were stern tests for him and he got on his bike quite a lot in both also, wasnt very impressive.

I think Martinez's power is being a little over rated on the back of his last 2 performances but I would still favour the stoppage for this one rather than the distance. However a 12 round show wouldnt surprise me from Barker but I would be surprised if he won any more than a couple of rounds in doing so.

Barker can go the distance if he looks more towards survival in the second half of the fight. If he gives it a real go ala Macklin against Sturm, I see him getting stopped.

Bookies best odds for the method of victory for Martinez are

8/13 Stoppage
9/4 Points

Presumably Bilbo will be all over that 9/4. My own odds would be more like 5/6 stoppage, 7/4 pts fwiw.

Btw I hope Martinez's next fight is against Macklin, that would be a fantastic fight while it lasted (Macklin would get KO'd at some point)

I'm not saying that is unlikely, but I think if it comes it will be a soft referee stoppage, a cut that isn't that bad, Barker getting staggered etc.

I'm not expecting Martinez to KO him at all.

[Rantcatrat]

Andy Lee v. Brian Vera to open up isn't a bad undercard either.

[skel1983]

Martinez stops him in 9.

[Galaxy]

Martinez stops him in 9.

Agreed! I don't think it'll last longer than that

[Mars_ax]

Bumping this thread up..

This might be a decent fight Saturday evening on HBO.



Thoughts?

[Leighton]

I'm looking forward to this fight. Obviously Barker is a huge underdog, but he will have a decent natural size advantage. He's the first natural middleweight Martinez has faced since Pavlik, and I'm not sure how close Pavlik was to his best that night, I think he had slipped quite badly personally.

Barker came back from a year out to beat Domenico Spada in a rather scrappy affair. Spada pushed Zabek pretty hard over two fights though, presumably coming close to beating first time around hence the rematch being made, (not seen the fights personally) and Zabek looked pretty decent against Chavez Jr, and in the eyes of some should have won that fight (I thought Chavez nicked it for the bodywork though)

So I'd say he's probably about as good as Chavez Jr and Zbik, which is current world level at middleweight. I'd give him a good shot to bear Chavez Jr and Sturm so he's a credible opponent for Martinez imo.

That said, he would need an outstanding night, and a lot of luck, to beat Martinez who is clearly considerably better than Chavez and Zabek.

My prediction is he puts in a very game performance, frustrates Martinez and catches him several times but will lose a unanimous decision. I'm thinking Kessler Calzahghe, style competitive. 117-111 116-112 type fight.

I'd be impressed if Martinez got him out of there though, I'm expecting a 12 round fight although Barker will likely get stopped by the referee as soon as he's in trouble, that's always the concern in fights like this, when the challenger, or less favoured guy, is given very few chances.

Agreed. Unanimous decision for martinez. Barker is fit and is very awkward. I think he will last to the end but will get beaten easily.