Greece and their economic collapse

[superheavyrhun]

I'm watching Question Time at the moment and people are talking about voting against austerity, and one young girl said that austerity shouldn't be forced on Greece if they don't want it.

My suspicion at the moment is that Greece is in a very different animal, and with protests, crashing employment and corrupt officials why would any international lender touch them without punitive interest rates. Voting against austerity for Greece is like voting not to be poor, but its not going to miraculously generate money.

[Gandalf]

Greece should have defaulted 2 years ago. They still need to default. It is beginning to remind me of the Treaty of Versailles. People are baying for blood.

[Kirkland Laing]

I lived there for the best part of a year on and off and I'm really sorry to see this. Lovely people, very entertaining crooks for leaders, paying tax seems to be a voluntary activity, been insolvent as a nation for most of the last few hundred years, since the advent of nation states really. Joining the eurozone was the thing that vrought the worst out of everybody. The leaders fudged the books to qualify them for the euro then took full advantage to blow the economy up. Rich euro countries like Germany pumped money in looking for higher returns which blew the Greek economy into a big bubble. The country lived beyond its means. This all created the perfect storm when the credit crunch happened in 2008.

Lots of other euro countries not far behind them. I wrote a lot about this in a thread a few years ago and I outlined how all this was going to play out. I've been searching for it but I can't find it. Has a load of old stuff been dumped off the board?

Long story short. They're fucked with austerity and fucked without it. Fucked in the euro and fucked out of it. Leaving the euro, which will happen eventually*, will make the current situation look like a tea party but things will get better quicker than if they stay in.

*Unless the Germans agree to allow a central eurobank that is the lender of last resort for all euro countries. But the Germans bailing out the rest of europe is illegal under their constitution. Greece actually went bust less than a year after the 2008 crisis but along with other euro countries has been bailed out endlessly. The euro banking system is all bust too and they've been bailed out too. Not going to end well.

[Master]

Spain, Italy could follow. Cameron is staying on the outside like a smug git that he is.

[El Kabong]

Portugal as well, they aren't on solid ground at the moment either. What has happened in Greece, the riots and what not just goes to show you what happens when the people start voting themselves benefits. The politicians say they'll bring more, the people vote for them, and it's a never ending cycle of raising taxes and raising spending to at least try and cover your ass.


....but I suppose this is all Capitalisms fault eh Kirkland, that evil Capitalism has struck again....in Greece no less

[superheavyrhun]

Portugal as well, they aren't on solid ground at the moment either. What has happened in Greece, the riots and what not just goes to show you what happens when the people start voting themselves benefits. The politicians say they'll bring more, the people vote for them, and it's a never ending cycle of raising taxes and raising spending to at least try and cover your ass.


....but I suppose this is all Capitalisms fault eh Kirkland, that evil Capitalism has struck again....in Greece no less

I'm pretty sure they voted for low taxes and high benefits. Unfortunately, the loans that delivered this from the rest of Europe are no longer being given, and Greece are royally fucked. Kirkland Laing is right in saying that for the next decade its going to be miserable, as they are fucked in and out of the Euro now.

[Kirkland Laing]

Portugal as well, they aren't on solid ground at the moment either. What has happened in Greece, the riots and what not just goes to show you what happens when the people start voting themselves benefits. The politicians say they'll bring more, the people vote for them, and it's a never ending cycle of raising taxes and raising spending to at least try and cover your ass.


....but I suppose this is all Capitalisms fault eh Kirkland, that evil Capitalism has struck again....in Greece no less

Greece is actually the only country in trouble that did this. Spain and Ireland were both running large budget surplusses before the 2008 meltdown. Italy was running a primary surplus. The main problem these countries have is that they're locked into a currency at an uncompetitive rate and they're unable to devale and can only regain competitiveness by crushing internal deflation. Although I'd have more success explaining string theory to a sheep that trying to get you to understand what's going on in europe.

[Kirkland Laing]

The eurozone problem explained in one graph.

euro in one graph.jpg

[Master]

The eurozone problem explained in one graph.

euro in one graph.jpg

Can't read it. Is it saying Germany benefited from it and the rest have not?

[Kirkland Laing]

The eurozone problem explained in one graph.

euro in one graph.jpg

Can't read it. Is it saying Germany benefited from it and the rest have not?

German investors pumped all their money into Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland etc. looking for higher returns than they were getting at home. This created bubbles on those countries and pushed up labour costs, making those countries uncompetitive against Germany. Now these countries have to regain competitiveness to bring the eurozone back into equlibrium. The best way to do this is for germany to inflate their economy while those other countries inflate more slowly, but Germany won't do that and is insisting on massive internal devaluations in those countries. But the austerity policies that these countries are using to try and devalue are making their problems even worse and creating depression-like conditions. So it's all fucked.

Things may change now as election results have created a French-led Latin bloc of countries who are rebelling against the austerity policies and trying to change Germany's mind. But don't hold your breath.

EDIT: Can't find the graph on the internet.