Romney vs. BO - Saddo's kids race mongering thread

[Youngblood]

Lyle, tomorrow Florida will be announced and that will make it a 332-206 margin of victory. And while yes it is seemingly closer in the popular vote sense, for the next 2 elections it will still be counted by electorate. In a nation that will be growing only population areas that now support the Democrats, if you don't see there might be a need for broad change, not sure what to say.

[VictorCharlie]

I'm not sure what you mean by growing population areas that now only support dems but if you mean Hispanics I think that is counting eggs before they are hatched. W pulled something like 40% of their vote. Culturally Hispanics tend to be religious, family oriented and socially conservative. The GOP can probably make inroads with those communities with a good comprehensive immigration plan. If they are smart they get out in front of the Pres on this but they will probably fuck that all up. Their smaller gov't message should be more tailored towards a 10th amendment issue. If you want cradle to grave nanny state you can have it but at the state not federal level. On social issues they need to stop talking about gay people and go with the public union for all and leave marriage to religious institutes. On abortion they should state they do not see an overturn of Roe v Wade but are against tax dollars for abortion. While I don't see our debt/deficit as a revenue issue they have lost the war of messaging. It easy to play class warfare with the tax the rich mantra so they have to dump Norquist. Taxes come and go but real spending cuts are hard to come by. Give up the top marginal rate cuts but make the Dems pay through the nose in cuts. On foreign policy they probably can stay on message b/c the Dems are just as hawkish. The biggest thing that needs to happen is at the very least silence the religious right. They can still be effective as strong conservatives in the financial/govt size arena but on every thing else they need move center and better tailor the message.

[Youngblood]

I'm not sure what you mean by growing population areas that now only support dems but if you mean Hispanics I think that is counting eggs before they are hatched. W pulled something like 40% of their vote. Culturally Hispanics tend to be religious, family oriented and socially conservative. The GOP can probably make inroads with those communities with a good comprehensive immigration plan. If they are smart they get out in front of the Pres on this but they will probably fuck that all up. Their smaller gov't message should be more tailored towards a 10th amendment issue. If you want cradle to grave nanny state you can have it but at the state not federal level. On social issues they need to stop talking about gay people and go with the public union for all and leave marriage to religious institutes. On abortion they should state they do not see an overturn of Roe v Wade but are against tax dollars for abortion. While I don't see our debt/deficit as a revenue issue they have lost the war of messaging. It easy to play class warfare with the tax the rich mantra so they have to dump Norquist. Taxes come and go but real spending cuts are hard to come by. Give up the top marginal rate cuts but make the Dems pay through the nose in cuts. On foreign policy they probably can stay on message b/c the Dems are just as hawkish. The biggest thing that needs to happen is at the very least silence the religious right. They can still be effective as strong conservatives in the financial/govt size arena but on every thing else they need move center and better tailor the message.

I agree with pretty much all of that, from anything I've read and learned in the last few months of reading. My question, how possible is it all? Norquist, getting past that whole deal? I understand the act in principle and concept of taxation with it, but the unyielding pledge, sign it or else. How can they/is it possible to silence the religious right without them turning it into some kind of party war? I do think they need to start courting the black vote, and certainly the latinos, even if the black vote might not show strong yields right away, but surely they have to start looking at the long game soon? I mean, abortion obv if they want to keep their religious vote, but again, will they really just take it lying down...stay quiet or w/e or accept a rebranding of the message?

[VictorCharlie]

A lot of moving away from religious nuts is better recruitment of candidates. More than anything it is all about how you package the message. The gay marriage issue needs to be less about gays and more about how gov't shouldn't play a role in marriage. Marriage is a religious ceremony and those institutions can choose who takes part but any two consenting adults can sign a contract to be viewed as a single entity in the eyes of the law. Let them know their religion isn't under attack and let the gays know they will have equal treatment. Now there just isn't a good way around abortion. I really don't feel like it is a make or break issue as long as dumb asses like akin and murdouch quit talking about rape and shit. A great move for the GOP would be to head off the Dems on contraception by moving to make it over the counter but that is probably a bridge too far. I'd personally love to see the party splinter but the power brokers know that once you get away from the two party system you are marginalized. The GOP is going to have to break with Norquist to a certain extent if any compromise on the "fiscal cliff" is going to happen.

[Kirkland Laing]

And now a word from the Christian Men's Defense Network:

What the Right Doesn’t Get About Elections | Christian Men's Defense Network

I was too late, the guy has made it private. What they don't get about elections is demographics. Like that Senator said a while ago, there aren't enough angry white guys to make the GOP a viable long term proposition. They're going to have to at a minimum support an immigration reform that Hispanics will vote for when Obama sets one in motion sometime in the next two years, but supporting it will make the GOP base melt down. They're between a rock and a hard place. Decades of bashing minorities to win the majority vote is coming back to bite then in the arse and there's nothing they can do about it.

Shame, because it was pretty great. VC covered the gist of it.

Beyond the hahalarious stuff yesterday that was far and wide, my takeaway from pundits on the right kind of went like this.

1. "Yea, we got it all wrong. Time to stop with the rapey, boo minorities, lolwoman and rights stuff. Make a new plan."

or

2. We got screwed by all of number 1.


I guess time will tell which way it goes, but they for sure have some hard work and soul searching to do.

You know your party has a problem when somebody asks you "did the rape guy win?" and your answer is "which one?". Just look at Lyle's "the GOP is inclusive" post for why the GOP base is so epically clueless about why nobody wants anything to do with them.

Bush the Lesser received 54 percent of the non-Hispanic white vote in 2000 and finished in a dead heat with Al Gore. Senator McCain (R-Get Off My Lawn) got 55 percent of that vote in 2008 and lost the election by seven percentage points. If the current voting percentages among white, black, Asian and Hispanic stay the same -- and they'll get less white -- the Republican nominee will lose by 14 points in 2020.

Every four years, a new 18–22-year-old cohort arrives that is more liberal than the one that has died off in the interim and a big bunch of mainly GOP oldsters cark it. The Republicans face a double peril with the youth vote. A far lower proportion of young voters are white, and those who are white are far less likely than their parents or grandparents to vote Republican. White voters over the age of 65 selected Romney by a twenty eight point margin. White voters under 30 split evenly. If they'd been facing a decent economy as they left high school/college they would have gone for Obama by 25+ points and will do for the Democrat in future.

Basically the GOP is fucked unless they reach out to every single group in the country but to do that they'll shatter their base.

[Kirkland Laing]

A lot of moving away from religious nuts is better recruitment of candidates. More than anything it is all about how you package the message. The gay marriage issue needs to be less about gays and more about how gov't shouldn't play a role in marriage. Marriage is a religious ceremony and those institutions can choose who takes part but any two consenting adults can sign a contract to be viewed as a single entity in the eyes of the law. Let them know their religion isn't under attack and let the gays know they will have equal treatment. Now there just isn't a good way around abortion. I really don't feel like it is a make or break issue as long as dumb asses like akin and murdouch quit talking about rape and shit. A great move for the GOP would be to head off the Dems on contraception by moving to make it over the counter but that is probably a bridge too far. I'd personally love to see the party splinter but the power brokers know that once you get away from the two party system you are marginalized. The GOP is going to have to break with Norquist to a certain extent if any compromise on the "fiscal cliff" is going to happen.

Bush won a lot of Hispanic votes because he'd been fairly pro-Hispanic as a Texas governor and hadn't come out against amnesty -- he'd basically hinted in the 2000 election campaign that he'd provide a path to citizenship. When he tried to pass a path to citizenship bill after he got re-elected people like Rush Limbaugh led a revolt against it and the GOP base made so many calls to DC that the congressional phone system crashed. Every GOP rep/Senator was told they'd be primaried if they supported the bill and it died an instant death. If the GOP head honchos back a similar plan en masse and give the base no choice the base will revolt and a significant enough number to matter won't tuen out to vote in future.

They can't touch abortion/gay marriage either. If they lose evangelicals they're completely fucked. And they can't give up on tax cuts for the top1% /corporations or they lose the Enron wing of the party and almost all their funding and without serious funding you can't get elected.

[VictorCharlie]

Kirk,

Why do you feel it necessary to provide me a history lesson on my own country much less my own state? Do you really think I'm not well versed on these topics? Anyway all those issues can be on the table w/o a revolt if they are appropriately messaged. The base is about winning more than anything else. I think Obama's victory is evident of that considering how little difference he has shown from Bush. Give the platforms subtle changes to the dialogue and the base will still Rah Rah Sisk Boom Bah as usual. The GOP of 2012 is different than the GOP 2000 and the GOP of 2016 can be different as well if the power brokers have enough vision and nuts. It make little difference to me personally b/c the end result of Dem/GOP leadership is the same.

[El Kabong]

Bush won a lot of Hispanic votes because he'd been fairly pro-Hispanic as a Texas governor and hadn't come out against amnesty -- he'd basically hinted in the 2000 election campaign that he'd provide a path to citizenship. When he tried to pass a path to citizenship bill after he got re-elected people like Rush Limbaugh led a revolt against it and the GOP base made so many calls to DC that the congressional phone system crashed. Every GOP rep/Senator was told they'd be primaried if they supported the bill and it died an instant death. If the GOP head honchos back a similar plan en masse and give the base no choice the base will revolt and a significant enough number to matter won't tuen out to vote in future.

They can't touch abortion/gay marriage either. If they lose evangelicals they're completely fucked. And they can't give up on tax cuts for the top1% /corporations or they lose the Enron wing of the party and almost all their funding and without serious funding you can't get elected.

Kirkland, Ronald Reagan did the whole Amnesty for Illegals thing and did he win over any hispanic voters for Reagan or the Republicans No it didn't.


Why do people like the Democrats? Because they aren't very tight when it comes to spending other people's money that is hands down the main reason. You can't tell me the Democrats have been all that helpful to the minorities they CLAIM to want to help. LBJ absolutely demolished the 2 parent household for African-Americans.

[Youngblood]

Here is a pretty good article from Nate Silver breaking down the polling for the 2012 Election. It is important to recognized that 538 is not a polling firm, but an aggregate. It uses all of the available polling information to get to what the election results will look like. This isn't some kind of testament or InYerFace.gif post, but a good look at where things are going with the types of bias in the numbers and a scratch at the surface as to why.

Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race - NYTimes.com

[TitoFan]

The worst case of butthurt yet. I wish it had her pic on it but still...it's awesome.

@Youngblood, I'll see your case of butthurt and raise you.


15 states start petitons to leave the USA

[Youngblood]

15 states start petitons to leave the USA

Not to pile on, because I've personally had all the required rubbing in immediately after the election. And we here in Canada are not without our citizens that just feel they are a more special kind a snowflake than the rest, that when not getting what we want threaten to leave...hi Quebec.

Anyway, here is a poignant anecdotal look at the red state reality. It's 3 pages long and a good read, imo.

GOP’s Red America forced to rethink its image of country - The Washington Post

[VictorCharlie]

That map in Tito's article is interesting. Shows how some key population centers are driving a lot of national policy. Really highlights the need for less national policy and more localized. I did find it amusing the author referring to us as our former name "The Republic of Texas".

[greynotsoold]

The worst case of butthurt yet. I wish it had her pic on it but still...it's awesome.

@Youngblood , I'll see your case of butthurt and raise you.


15 states start petitons to leave the USA

Montana is on the list of states that filed petitions to secede but, to be fair, I don't think that it was really over this election. That comes up regularly in our state legislature, which meets every two years, and it is generally an affirmation of a willingness to leave if the federal government infringes on the rights of Montanans. This is usually due to some attack on gun rights. It is very common to see "If At First You Don't Secede..." bumper stickers around here.

[Youngblood]

That map in Tito's article is interesting. Shows how some key population centers are driving a lot of national policy. Really highlights the need for less national policy and more localized. I did find it amusing the author referring to us as our former name "The Republic of Texas".

Here is a better link to the map. Yea, so what's the deal with him saying that? Just being derisive? I do hope the end result of all this will be someone/thing emerging. a good argument against the Dems and big government, and for personal freedom. I will never probably find in me an argument against universal health care being a canuck and all, but it scares me the potential for loss of personal freedoms in the same breath.

[VictorCharlie]

I think it is probably meant as a pejorative. I'd like to say I believe we are on the track to a more libertarian viewpoint but I don't. Even if the country suffers a major catastrophe financially it will be used as an excuse to centralize more and more power at the federal level at the expense our individual freedoms and local government.