The Economic Crisis (The Fall of America & the Western World)

[Kirkland Laing]

US Bonds and any US dollar denominated instruments are the most RISKY investments on the planet. Why would anybody want to hold US dollars OR US bonds? The value of the dollar has been eroded terribly by all the money printing. Wait til interest rates which have been kept artificially low at zero for the past 5 years hit 3 or 4%-----kiss the US goodbye Lang. They cant even pay the interest on their national debt. And this is at 0% interest. Do you know what the payments will be if the rate goes up even to 3%?? I cant even imagine the carnage.

The Treasury just auctioned $$30 billion of seven year bonds yesterday. There was robust bidding and the Treasury could have sold eighty billion if they'd taken every penny on offer. And the price they sold them for? 1.93%. Assuming standard 2% inflation that means bond investors, the smartest investors on the planet*, people who read the paper and know the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, paid the US government 0.07% interest a year for seven year to look after their money for them.

Bond Prices Rise After Strong Debt Auction


The headline says that bond prices rise. And when bond prices rise, what happens to bond yields/interest rates, hmmm?

I already showed you a graph that shows how much the US would be paying if/when interest rates get back up to 5-7%. America would be paying the same percentage of GDP in interest as it was in the 1990s. And I already showed you the value of the dollar hasn't budged despite the Fed tripling the number of dollars in existence.


*Some of these guys spend longer every day studying the bond market and things that affect it than you do watching Alex Jones! A lot of them have spent twelve hours a day, six days a week, fifty weeks a year for decades studying the market. They're currently paying one and a half percent over inflation to lend money to the US for thirty years. If they're locking their and their investors' money away for thirty years for one and a half points over 2% annual inflation they can't be too worried about the imminent collapse of the dollar, can they?

[VictorCharlie]

Walk away Brock...walk away. I'll debate Kirk on a slew of topics but the man kind of knows his shit on macro economics...well except for that silly Keynsian garbage but we can't all be enlightened like Hayek

[Kirkland Laing]

Walk away Brock...walk away. I'll debate Kirk on a slew of topics but the man kind of knows his shit on macro economics...well except for that silly Keynsian garbage but we can't all be enlightened like Hayek

I invite you to compare Hayekian Europe with its record and rising unemployment rate (over 25% in some countries) and relatively Keynesian America. The last five years have been a complete vindication for Keynesian economics.

I'm not tied to any particular ideology. I have to be right, I can't afford the luxury of believing in one thing when events prove it's completely wrong. If it turned out that slashing government spending worked and turned recessionary economies around then I'd fully support slashing government spending. But the evidence shows how well it works all too clearly.

[VictorCharlie]

I wouldn't describe any centrally planned economy as reminiscent of Hayek's principles and definitely not any in Europe. American's problem is they fully embrace Keynes philosophy of deficit spending to stabilize markets but ignore the part where he talks about running a surplus once the markets turn back up.

[Kirkland Laing]

I wouldn't describe any centrally planned economy as reminiscent of Hayek's principles and definitely not any in Europe. American's problem is they fully embrace Keynes philosophy of deficit spending to stabilize markets but ignore the part where he talks about running a surplus once the markets turn back up.

Centrally planned economies are economies where erery aspect of the economy is controlled and run by the government. North Korea is an example of a planned economy. Economies throughout Hayek and other Austrians' lives that they studied and based their theories on have been mixed economies where the economy is mainly private but has a government/public sector.

I agree about the Keynesian bit but the fact that governments never* run a surplus in good economic times doesn't negate the fact that Keynesian policies are now obviously the only way to deal with zero interest rates/poor economic growth situations like the current one.

*Actually Spain and Ireland were running large surpluses before the 2008 meltdown. After five years of cuts Spain currently has 26% unemployment and Ireland has 15% and would have 25% but so many Irish have emigrated again, fucking their economy up for future decades.

[brocktonblockbust]

US Bonds and any US dollar denominated instruments are the most RISKY investments on the planet. Why would anybody want to hold US dollars OR US bonds? The value of the dollar has been eroded terribly by all the money printing. Wait til interest rates which have been kept artificially low at zero for the past 5 years hit 3 or 4%-----kiss the US goodbye Lang. They cant even pay the interest on their national debt. And this is at 0% interest. Do you know what the payments will be if the rate goes up even to 3%?? I cant even imagine the carnage.

The Treasury just auctioned $$30 billion of seven year bonds yesterday. There was robust bidding and the Treasury could have sold eighty billion if they'd taken every penny on offer. And the price they sold them for? 1.93%. Assuming standard 2% inflation that means bond investors, the smartest investors on the planet*, people who read the paper and know the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, paid the US government 0.07% interest a year for seven year to look after their money for them.

Bond Prices Rise After Strong Debt Auction


The headline says that bond prices rise. And when bond prices rise, what happens to bond yields/interest rates, hmmm?

I already showed you a graph that shows how much the US would be paying if/when interest rates get back up to 5-7%. America would be paying the same percentage of GDP in interest as it was in the 1990s. And I already showed you the value of the dollar hasn't budged despite the Fed tripling the number of dollars in existence.


*Some of these guys spend longer every day studying the bond market and things that affect it than you do watching Alex Jones! A lot of them have spent twelve hours a day, six days a week, fifty weeks a year for decades studying the market. They're currently paying one and a half percent over inflation to lend money to the US for thirty years. If they're locking their and their investors' money away for thirty years for one and a half points over 2% annual inflation they can't be too worried about the imminent collapse of the dollar, can they?

only reason there is demand for bonds is because ::: hmmmmm??
“We know it has to happen. And when it does, we’ll get out.” Lang do you know who said that 2 weeks ago? Lang, if you are as knowledgable as you seem, you know that a bond sell-off has been anticipated for years, given the long run of popularity that corporate and government bonds have enjoyed. But most strategists expected that investors would slowly transfer out of bonds, allowing interest rates to slowly drift up.
Instead, Ben Shithead Bernanke recently suggested that the strength of the economic recovery might allow the Fed to slow down its bond-buying program, waves of selling have---could we say Kirkland---convulsed the markets. The value of outstanding United States government 10-year notes has fallen 10% since a high in early May. The selling--if you read it---hit a record $48 billion worth of shares in bond mutual funds so far in June, according to TrimTabs.(see this video, this guy is the husband of a girl I did my Masters with in 1990:
But hedge funds and other big institutional investors have also been closing out positions or stepping back from the bond market. “The feeling you are getting out there is that people are selling first and asking questions later,” said Hans Humes, chief executive of the hedge fund Greylock Capital Management.

[Kirkland Laing]

US Bonds and any US dollar denominated instruments are the most RISKY investments on the planet. Why would anybody want to hold US dollars OR US bonds? The value of the dollar has been eroded terribly by all the money printing. Wait til interest rates which have been kept artificially low at zero for the past 5 years hit 3 or 4%-----kiss the US goodbye Lang. They cant even pay the interest on their national debt. And this is at 0% interest. Do you know what the payments will be if the rate goes up even to 3%?? I cant even imagine the carnage.

The Treasury just auctioned $$30 billion of seven year bonds yesterday. There was robust bidding and the Treasury could have sold eighty billion if they'd taken every penny on offer. And the price they sold them for? 1.93%. Assuming standard 2% inflation that means bond investors, the smartest investors on the planet*, people who read the paper and know the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, paid the US government 0.07% interest a year for seven year to look after their money for them.

Bond Prices Rise After Strong Debt Auction


The headline says that bond prices rise. And when bond prices rise, what happens to bond yields/interest rates, hmmm?

I already showed you a graph that shows how much the US would be paying if/when interest rates get back up to 5-7%. America would be paying the same percentage of GDP in interest as it was in the 1990s. And I already showed you the value of the dollar hasn't budged despite the Fed tripling the number of dollars in existence.


*Some of these guys spend longer every day studying the bond market and things that affect it than you do watching Alex Jones! A lot of them have spent twelve hours a day, six days a week, fifty weeks a year for decades studying the market. They're currently paying one and a half percent over inflation to lend money to the US for thirty years. If they're locking their and their investors' money away for thirty years for one and a half points over 2% annual inflation they can't be too worried about the imminent collapse of the dollar, can they?

only reason there is demand for bonds is because ::: hmmmmm??
“We know it has to happen. And when it does, we’ll get out.” Lang do you know who said that 2 weeks ago? Lang, if you are as knowledgable as you seem, you know that a bond sell-off has been anticipated for years, given the long run of popularity that corporate and government bonds have enjoyed. But most strategists expected that investors would slowly transfer out of bonds, allowing interest rates to slowly drift up.
Instead, Ben Shithead Bernanke recently suggested that the strength of the economic recovery might allow the Fed to slow down its bond-buying program, waves of selling have---could we say Kirkland---convulsed the markets. The value of outstanding United States government 10-year notes has fallen 10% since a high in early May. The selling--if you read it---hit a record $48 billion worth of shares in bond mutual funds so far in June, according to TrimTabs.(see this video, this guy is the husband of a girl I did my Masters with in 1990:
But hedge funds and other big institutional investors have also been closing out positions or stepping back from the bond market. “The feeling you are getting out there is that people are selling first and asking questions later,” said Hans Humes, chief executive of the hedge fund Greylock Capital Management.

Yes, you'll find people out there predicting all sorts of things. As for who sadi that I have no idea. What you've got is a bunch of bits and pieces that you think mean something but actually don't mean anything at all.

If I wanted to write a scare article to get people panicking about the collapse of the bond market/financial system/whatever I'm sure I could do a much better job. The actual prices of bonds and the volume of trading of bonds, bond funds, bond derivatives and options has all been within normal ranges for years now. Just because what you think is a huge number was traded in a month doesn't mean anything, it's just somebody using normal numbers (that sound big!) to scare you.

Your first argument was the soaring price of gold which you said predicted the imminent collapse of the dollar. What's happening to the price of gold right now, hmmm?

[brocktonblockbust]

US Bonds and any US dollar denominated instruments are the most RISKY investments on the planet. Why would anybody want to hold US dollars OR US bonds? The value of the dollar has been eroded terribly by all the money printing. Wait til interest rates which have been kept artificially low at zero for the past 5 years hit 3 or 4%-----kiss the US goodbye Lang. They cant even pay the interest on their national debt. And this is at 0% interest. Do you know what the payments will be if the rate goes up even to 3%?? I cant even imagine the carnage.

The Treasury just auctioned $$30 billion of seven year bonds yesterday. There was robust bidding and the Treasury could have sold eighty billion if they'd taken every penny on offer. And the price they sold them for? 1.93%. Assuming standard 2% inflation that means bond investors, the smartest investors on the planet*, people who read the paper and know the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, paid the US government 0.07% interest a year for seven year to look after their money for them.

Bond Prices Rise After Strong Debt Auction


The headline says that bond prices rise. And when bond prices rise, what happens to bond yields/interest rates, hmmm?

I already showed you a graph that shows how much the US would be paying if/when interest rates get back up to 5-7%. America would be paying the same percentage of GDP in interest as it was in the 1990s. And I already showed you the value of the dollar hasn't budged despite the Fed tripling the number of dollars in existence.


*Some of these guys spend longer every day studying the bond market and things that affect it than you do watching Alex Jones! A lot of them have spent twelve hours a day, six days a week, fifty weeks a year for decades studying the market. They're currently paying one and a half percent over inflation to lend money to the US for thirty years. If they're locking their and their investors' money away for thirty years for one and a half points over 2% annual inflation they can't be too worried about the imminent collapse of the dollar, can they?

only reason there is demand for bonds is because ::: hmmmmm??
“We know it has to happen. And when it does, we’ll get out.” Lang do you know who said that 2 weeks ago? Lang, if you are as knowledgable as you seem, you know that a bond sell-off has been anticipated for years, given the long run of popularity that corporate and government bonds have enjoyed. But most strategists expected that investors would slowly transfer out of bonds, allowing interest rates to slowly drift up.
Instead, Ben Shithead Bernanke recently suggested that the strength of the economic recovery might allow the Fed to slow down its bond-buying program, waves of selling have---could we say Kirkland---convulsed the markets. The value of outstanding United States government 10-year notes has fallen 10% since a high in early May. The selling--if you read it---hit a record $48 billion worth of shares in bond mutual funds so far in June, according to TrimTabs.(see this video, this guy is the husband of a girl I did my Masters with in 1990:
But hedge funds and other big institutional investors have also been closing out positions or stepping back from the bond market. “The feeling you are getting out there is that people are selling first and asking questions later,” said Hans Humes, chief executive of the hedge fund Greylock Capital Management.

Yes, you'll find people out there predicting all sorts of things. As for who sadi that I have no idea. What you've got is a bunch of bits and pieces that you think mean something but actually don't mean anything at all.

If I wanted to write a scare article to get people panicking about the collapse of the bond market/financial system/whatever I'm sure I could do a much better job. The actual prices of bonds and the volume of trading of bonds, bond funds, bond derivatives and options has all been within normal ranges for years now. Just because what you think is a huge number was traded in a month doesn't mean anything, it's just somebody using normal numbers (that sound big!) to scare you.

Your first argument was the soaring price of gold which you said predicted the imminent collapse of the dollar. What's happening to the price of gold right now, hmmm?

you DO realize that is just your OPINION, don't you Kirkland?

[Kirkland Laing]

US Bonds and any US dollar denominated instruments are the most RISKY investments on the planet. Why would anybody want to hold US dollars OR US bonds? The value of the dollar has been eroded terribly by all the money printing. Wait til interest rates which have been kept artificially low at zero for the past 5 years hit 3 or 4%-----kiss the US goodbye Lang. They cant even pay the interest on their national debt. And this is at 0% interest. Do you know what the payments will be if the rate goes up even to 3%?? I cant even imagine the carnage.

The Treasury just auctioned $$30 billion of seven year bonds yesterday. There was robust bidding and the Treasury could have sold eighty billion if they'd taken every penny on offer. And the price they sold them for? 1.93%. Assuming standard 2% inflation that means bond investors, the smartest investors on the planet*, people who read the paper and know the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, paid the US government 0.07% interest a year for seven year to look after their money for them.

Bond Prices Rise After Strong Debt Auction


The headline says that bond prices rise. And when bond prices rise, what happens to bond yields/interest rates, hmmm?

I already showed you a graph that shows how much the US would be paying if/when interest rates get back up to 5-7%. America would be paying the same percentage of GDP in interest as it was in the 1990s. And I already showed you the value of the dollar hasn't budged despite the Fed tripling the number of dollars in existence.


*Some of these guys spend longer every day studying the bond market and things that affect it than you do watching Alex Jones! A lot of them have spent twelve hours a day, six days a week, fifty weeks a year for decades studying the market. They're currently paying one and a half percent over inflation to lend money to the US for thirty years. If they're locking their and their investors' money away for thirty years for one and a half points over 2% annual inflation they can't be too worried about the imminent collapse of the dollar, can they?

only reason there is demand for bonds is because ::: hmmmmm??
“We know it has to happen. And when it does, we’ll get out.” Lang do you know who said that 2 weeks ago? Lang, if you are as knowledgable as you seem, you know that a bond sell-off has been anticipated for years, given the long run of popularity that corporate and government bonds have enjoyed. But most strategists expected that investors would slowly transfer out of bonds, allowing interest rates to slowly drift up.
Instead, Ben Shithead Bernanke recently suggested that the strength of the economic recovery might allow the Fed to slow down its bond-buying program, waves of selling have---could we say Kirkland---convulsed the markets. The value of outstanding United States government 10-year notes has fallen 10% since a high in early May. The selling--if you read it---hit a record $48 billion worth of shares in bond mutual funds so far in June, according to TrimTabs.(see this video, this guy is the husband of a girl I did my Masters with in 1990:
But hedge funds and other big institutional investors have also been closing out positions or stepping back from the bond market. “The feeling you are getting out there is that people are selling first and asking questions later,” said Hans Humes, chief executive of the hedge fund Greylock Capital Management.

Yes, you'll find people out there predicting all sorts of things. As for who sadi that I have no idea. What you've got is a bunch of bits and pieces that you think mean something but actually don't mean anything at all.

If I wanted to write a scare article to get people panicking about the collapse of the bond market/financial system/whatever I'm sure I could do a much better job. The actual prices of bonds and the volume of trading of bonds, bond funds, bond derivatives and options has all been within normal ranges for years now. Just because what you think is a huge number was traded in a month doesn't mean anything, it's just somebody using normal numbers (that sound big!) to scare you.

Your first argument was the soaring price of gold which you said predicted the imminent collapse of the dollar. What's happening to the price of gold right now, hmmm?

you DO realize that is just your OPINION, don't you Kirkland?

I'm Kirkland Laing. I'm always right about everything. I could write you a book about the bond market and how it works. When I try and condense everything I need to say into a few paragraphs I read it back and think awful job, I didn't explain this and that rpoperly. What I will do is spend a couple of days drafting a concise post that explains the current situation so simply and clearly that even Lyle can understand it. I'm only going to spend a few minutes a day doing it so expect it next week. And we'll see how my explanation of the market and what will happen in the future plays out against what does actually happen. You'll see that when it comes to this sort of thing I'm always right about everything.

In return you have to give me a final date in the future when you'll accept that the ECONOMIC FIERY DEATH SPIRAL isn't going to happen. Some date when you accept the people you're reading were wrong all along. Because they are.

[brocktonblockbust]

you DO realize that is just your OPINION, don't you Kirkland? [/QUOTE]

I'm Kirkland Laing. I'm always right about everything. .[/QUOTE]

uh,.....wait a minute.........what?

[Kirkland Laing]

I don't understand. I'm Kirkland Laing. Kirkland Laing!