It's a tough one to call. Machida is obviously very tricky, but a lot of people don't understand how much of a beast Mousasi is standing. He was an amateur boxing champ, and he's actually fought in k-1 (which was a showcase of the best strikers in the world, a level of striking far superior to MMA) and he did well, 2-0. He beat the shit out of Musashi and Kyotaro, two super legit kickboxers.