I think this is pretty straightforward. If they had fought a year ago at LMW, Canelo would've been favourite and Would've won. Neither of them are proper Middleweights (In Canelo's case , not yet) , so I see no reason why Canelo Wouldn't win.
This is a genuine win,win fight for everyone. Cotto makes a fortune , Canelo goes into the MW division with a belt that makes him relevant.
Let's not get carried away with Cotto's win against Martinez. Right place , Right time.