Falling prices.....yay!

[SlimTrae]

A couple of years ago you were saying we had massive inflation because commodity prices (oil, gold, etc.) were soaring. Now those prices are collapsing. So by your logic we must be seeing massive deflation at the moment, right?

If you look at a commodity index (basket of commodities to show a represenitive trade-weighted price indicator for commodities) chart over the last couple of decades you'll see the graph line going up and down like a seismograph in an earthquake. That's why we don't include things like food and energy prices in how we measure inflation because it gives a false reading.

Here is headline inflation, which includes food and energy prices, and core inflation, which doesn't.




But how do we know that the government isn't making the inflation numbers up? Because clearly that's what's happening according to the fucknuts who've been predicting hyperinflation for the last six years. Because it's impossible that they're wrong -- the only reason for the fact that we're hearing about deflation and not hyperinflation must be that governments are lying.

Except no. Here's an independent measure of inflation, the billion price index, run by MIT it meausres hundreds of millions of consumer and producer prices on the internet. Here it is.



From when it started look how closely it maps the consumer price index (government measure of inflation).

Up to date numbers here.




You could also look at the yearly nominal GDP increaseand add on the government inflation numbers and see if it looks legit, then imagine that you really did have ten or fifteen percent inflation that this would mean that the economy was really contracting about ten percent a year. We know what that looks like -- at the end of the Bush administration it really was contracting that much and America was losing a million jobs a month. Now it's gaining 250 000 a month which is what it should be doing if the numbers are legit. Which they fucking are and the numbers prove it. But this last paragraph is far beyond the comprehension ability of a Korean English teacher.

Stick to teaching English and don't worry your little head about things you don't understand.

I know a good bit of Politics & will gladly duke it out on anythread, but when it comes to stuff like GDP? I do a Floyd & cherry pick my way out these fights...

[Kirkland Laing]

A couple of years ago you were saying we had massive inflation because commodity prices (oil, gold, etc.) were soaring. Now those prices are collapsing. So by your logic we must be seeing massive deflation at the moment, right?

If you look at a commodity index (basket of commodities to show a represenitive trade-weighted price indicator for commodities) chart over the last couple of decades you'll see the graph line going up and down like a seismograph in an earthquake. That's why we don't include things like food and energy prices in how we measure inflation because it gives a false reading.

Here is headline inflation, which includes food and energy prices, and core inflation, which doesn't.




But how do we know that the government isn't making the inflation numbers up? Because clearly that's what's happening according to the fucknuts who've been predicting hyperinflation for the last six years. Because it's impossible that they're wrong -- the only reason for the fact that we're hearing about deflation and not hyperinflation must be that governments are lying.

Except no. Here's an independent measure of inflation, the billion price index, run by MIT it meausres hundreds of millions of consumer and producer prices on the internet. Here it is.



From when it started look how closely it maps the consumer price index (government measure of inflation).

Up to date numbers here.




You could also look at the yearly nominal GDP increaseand add on the government inflation numbers and see if it looks legit, then imagine that you really did have ten or fifteen percent inflation that this would mean that the economy was really contracting about ten percent a year. We know what that looks like -- at the end of the Bush administration it really was contracting that much and America was losing a million jobs a month. Now it's gaining 250 000 a month which is what it should be doing if the numbers are legit. Which they fucking are and the numbers prove it. But this last paragraph is far beyond the comprehension ability of a Korean English teacher.

Stick to teaching English and don't worry your little head about things you don't understand.

I know a good bit of Politics & will gladly duke it out on anythread, but when it comes to stuff like GDP? I do a Floyd & cherry pick my way out these fights...

It's the value of goods and services produced by a country in a calendar year. If you own a factory it's like working out how much stuff you make every year. GDP is just how much USA Inc. produces every year. That's it. Not complicated. Easy to understand, unless like Miles you have a nutter force field around your brain that prevents non-looney information entering.

[Gandalf]

No, I tend not to trust mass governmental data. It tends to be a little suspicious and also seems rather cooked with them doing anything to bolster the books such as counting drugs and prostitution which are supposedly against the law. They shouldn't really arrest you then! Anything to topple the French numbers, eh. Likewise, inflation is a cooked number and has little connection with reality which I think most people on the ground would attest to. Inflation is more than the official figures say and along with wages that do not increase, that inflation becomes a serious burden on people. One of the most obvious signs of inflation is in property and rents. At the end of the day people need somewhere to live and under Thatcher alone rents doubled. Would anyone care to compare the cost of a home or rents since Thatcher? That in itself is crippling inflation. At the end of the day, Kirkland. Inflation is simply about 'Is my cost of living going up?' and most would likely respond with a simple 'Yes'.

[Kirkland Laing]

No, I tend not to trust mass governmental data. It tends to be a little suspicious and also seems rather cooked with them doing anything to bolster the books such as counting drugs and prostitution which are supposedly against the law. They shouldn't really arrest you then! Anything to topple the French numbers, eh. Likewise, inflation is a cooked number and has little connection with reality which I think most people on the ground would attest to. Inflation is more than the official figures say and along with wages that do not increase, that inflation becomes a serious burden on people. One of the most obvious signs of inflation is in property and rents. At the end of the day people need somewhere to live and under Thatcher alone rents doubled. Would anyone care to compare the cost of a home or rents since Thatcher? That in itself is crippling inflation. At the end of the day, Kirkland. Inflation is simply about 'Is my cost of living going up?' and most would likely respond with a simple 'Yes'.

So far you've mentioned chocolate and rents/house prices.

Both of these things have gone up in price but it's due to supply and demand. Nothing to do with governments printing money or anything like that.

Housing in Britain is scare and expensive because of planning regulations and mass immigration. Chocolate is going up in price because of a variety of reasons, poor cocoa harvests and increased demand being two of them.



This isn't going to get through the force field but I'm happy to let events over the next few years speak for themselves. You can continue ranting away about nonexistent hyperinflation while large chunks of the world struggle with actual deflation and start devaluing their currency to try and export the problem somewhere else. I'm not sure if reality will ever make it through your force field but nobody else will be in any doubt as to what's happening.

[Gandalf]

The force is very strong around me. Otherworldly so. If prices suddenly drop significantly lower then I will be more than happy to have been proven wrong on inflation. I do not think there is hyper inflation, but there is significant inflation in the things people need in day to day life. When things shrink and prices go up as in new London flats or chocolate bars, there is inflation. I truly hope there is a massive housing market correction as it would be good for the general population and of course I hope food does get cheaper. But not with a corresponding massive drop in wages as that would be cheating! Inflation is a bad thing, it's only good for shrinking debt, so the twats of the world love it.

[Kirkland Laing]

A couple of years ago you were saying we had massive inflation because commodity prices (oil, gold, etc.) were soaring. Now those prices are collapsing. So by your logic we must be seeing massive deflation at the moment, right?

If you look at a commodity index (basket of commodities to show a represenitive trade-weighted price indicator for commodities) chart over the last couple of decades you'll see the graph line going up and down like a seismograph in an earthquake. That's why we don't include things like food and energy prices in how we measure inflation because it gives a false reading.

Here is headline inflation, which includes food and energy prices, and core inflation, which doesn't.




But how do we know that the government isn't making the inflation numbers up? Because clearly that's what's happening according to the fucknuts who've been predicting hyperinflation for the last six years. Because it's impossible that they're wrong -- the only reason for the fact that we're hearing about deflation and not hyperinflation must be that governments are lying.

Except no. Here's an independent measure of inflation, the billion price index, run by MIT it meausres hundreds of millions of consumer and producer prices on the internet. Here it is.



From when it started look how closely it maps the consumer price index (government measure of inflation).

Up to date numbers here.




You could also look at the yearly nominal GDP increaseand add on the government inflation numbers and see if it looks legit, then imagine that you really did have ten or fifteen percent inflation that this would mean that the economy was really contracting about ten percent a year. We know what that looks like -- at the end of the Bush administration it really was contracting that much and America was losing a million jobs a month. Now it's gaining 250 000 a month which is what it should be doing if the numbers are legit. Which they fucking are and the numbers prove it. But this last paragraph is far beyond the comprehension ability of a Korean English teacher.

Stick to teaching English and don't worry your little head about things you don't understand.

I know a good bit of Politics & will gladly duke it out on anythread, but when it comes to stuff like GDP? I do a Floyd & cherry pick my way out these fights...

It's the value of goods and services produced by a country in a calendar year. If you own a factory it's like working out how much stuff you make every year. GDP is just how much USA Inc. produces every year. That's it. Not complicated. Easy to understand, unless like Miles you have a nutter force field around your brain that prevents non-looney information entering.

You now know one concrete fact about economics and finance. This means you know more facts about economics and finance than Miles does. Congratulations.

[Gandalf]

That is outrageous, I read and follow my financial news daily and read excellent writers like Ha Joon Chang. I know my fundamentals and can interpret the year on year price of things which is inflation. If you lot knew your basics, the world wouldn't be in such a stew. I live in the world of common sense and not endless charts. You are so bothered by my common sense you have replied to the same person twice. Stop inflating your post count with replies to yourself......that is my forte! Inflation! The only deflation is in wages, oil and in banks hoarding printed money as they should be bankrupt. Everything else is INFLATION. Even fuel is inflation as the price is not being passed onto the consumer. Corporations are making more money! It is faux deflation for the consumer.

You were mocking me about my inability to forecast last years collapse too, but with QE it was very difficult. Are you feeling it a little more for this year? I hope prices do come down some, but not a load of unemployed people as the price worth paying. Bankers really have to go with their make it up as they go along nonsense. They should stick to common sense. And this is all at ZIRP!

[Kirkland Laing]

That is outrageous, I read and follow my financial news daily and read excellent writers like Ha Joon Chang. I know my fundamentals and can interpret the year on year price of things which is inflation. If you lot knew your basics, the world wouldn't be in such a stew. I live in the world of common sense and not endless charts. You are so bothered by my common sense you have replied to the same person twice. Stop inflating your post count with replies to yourself......that is my forte! Inflation! The only deflation is in wages, oil and in banks hoarding printed money as they should be bankrupt. Everything else is INFLATION. Even fuel is inflation as the price is not being passed onto the consumer. Corporations are making more money! It is faux deflation for the consumer.

You were mocking me about my inability to forecast last years collapse too, but with QE it was very difficult. Are you feeling it a little more for this year? I hope prices do come down some, but not a load of unemployed people as the price worth paying. Bankers really have to go with their make it up as they go along nonsense. They should stick to common sense. And this is all at ZIRP!

I googled this name and this is the first thing that comes up :

Why did Britain’s political class buy into the Tories’ economic fairytale? | Ha-Joon Chang | Comment is free | The Guardian

This guy is a conventional economist. He knows what he's talking about.

How the fuck did he get through the force field? You'll note in that article he quotes GDP figures and inflation numbers and doesn't question their accuracy. In fact those numbers are the basis for the arguments he's making in the article.

So how the fuck does this square with you and your nutty ideas about bullshit statistics? Hmmm?

[Kirkland Laing]

Also, too. Yes I'm mocking your ability to forecast anything. That's because you're a Korean English teacher with zero background in economics or finance, somebody who a few months ago didn't even know basic fundamental facts about how banking works, and somebody who thinks most of the numbers and statistics produced by various bodies are nonsense. So yeah you do invite a little bit of mockery.


When I joined this board I had to listen people telling me how the free market system and particularly the post-Reagan system of deregulation and tax cuts was producing the greatest, strongest economy ever. I pointed out that this was not the case and that we were actually about to see the biggest economic crash since the 1929 crash. I said that after the crash happened the heads of finance and government would do everything but do what was needed, which is to re-regulate the financial system and to effect a major downward redistribution of wealth to counteract the major upward redistribution of wealth that had happended since the Reagan/Thatcher class warriors took office in 1980. I said that markets and the financial system would remain volatile and fragile until this was done.

When you look back at what I've been saying here for nearly a decade and the fact that I celebrate quarter of a century working in the financial industry this year you'd have to say that I have a credible background to make predictions and also an actual track record of being right.

I'm now looking at the GOP 2016 presidential candidates sounding like I did a decade ago. Mitt Hedge Fund Romney talking about how we now have to help low income people, Ted Cruz, the rightiest of righties, talking about how the median wage has stagnated for decades, and I'm thinking that I'm starting to look quite prescient. Don't you think so too?

[Kirkland Laing]

Romney criticized President Obama and sketched out a three-pronged campaign platform should he seek the presidency for a third time. He said the 2016 campaign should center on making the world safer, offering opportunity for all Americans and lifting people out of poverty.“Under President Obama the rich have gotten richer, income inequality has gotten worse and there are more people in poverty in American than ever before,” Mr. Romney said.


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/17/us...ttom-well&_r=0




In his first major speech since stepping into the 2016 presidential sweepstakes in December, the Republican former Florida governor spoke confidently and in significant detail about the broad range of issues beginning to shape the campaign for the White House. Bush signaled he would offer the country the “adult conversations” he said are lacking in Washington and would focus on people who have been left out of the economic revival.
“Sixty percent of Americans believe that we’re still in a recession,” Bush said. “They’re not dumb. It’s because they are in a recession. They’re frustrated, and they see a small portion of the population on the economy’s up escalator. Portfolios are strong, but paychecks are weak. Millions of Americans want to move forward in their lives — they want to rise — but they’re losing hope.”


Jeb Bush previews 2016 run, promising ‘adult conversations’ on big issues - The Washington Post




On Tuesday night, Senator Ted Cruz appeared on Fox News to respond to the State of the Union address — and talked about how the US economy was only working for the "top 1 percent," who he said have gotten "fat and happy" under Obama's administration.

Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com Cruz's rhetorical move is unusual for a prominent Republican, particularly a presidential contender. This emphasis on the "the 1 percent" has long been condemned by many in the party as class warfare.

[...]

KELLY: He says it is working. He calls it "middle-class economics" and says "the verdict is in, it’s working." Some of the stats offered by the president and in some of the news reports today: Unemployment down to 5.6 percent. Gasoline prices down. Stock markets are up. Economy grew by 5 percent in the third quarter of last year, its fastest rate for more than a decade. How can you hit him on the economy?
CRUZ: Because the facts are, we’re facing a divided America right now when it comes to the economy. It is true that the top 1 percent are doing great under Barack Obama. Today, the top 1 percent earn a higher share of our national income than any year since 1928.

He continued by citing wage stagnation, Americans dropping out of the workforce, and even said that the "rich and powerful" have gotten "fat and happy":

CRUZ: "The sad reality is, with big government under the Obama administration, the rich and powerful, those who walk the corridors of power in the Obama administration, have gotten fat and happy. But working men and women across this country — we have the lowest labor force participation since 1978. The reason the unemployment rate keeps dropping is millions of people keep dropping out of the workforce altogether so they’re not counted in that number. And, I’ll tell you, wage stagnation. For over a decade now, median wages have stagnated, and this is an administration that benefits those with connections to Washington with influence."


Ted Cruz sounded a whole lot like Elizabeth Warren on Fox News last night - Vox


Now I've no doubt that these fuckers think that the way to solve the problem is to give a gigantic tax cut to the top 1% and slash what little financial and other business regulation that remains. But the problems with western economies are now so obvious that even the GOP can't ignore them. All we need to do now is get the Germands and the Bundesbank to recognise them too. And the Greek people*, peace be upon them, made a start on that last night.




The longer it takes for them all to realise that I was right in the first place the better it makes me look eventually. Not that that bothers me any, I already know that I'm right, but I expect the major heads of government, the heads of the world's major central banks and the heads of the world's global financial institutions to eventually offer me a full public apology for their arrogance in believing that they could deal with the greatest economic meltdown since 1929 without following my advice.




*The EU will do everything possible to fuck Syriza up if they make any serious attempt to renegotiate their debt. If they get a bank run going Greece is going to be in serious trouble. If they think things are bad now wait till food and fuel imports stop coming because there's no money to pay for them. If Greece manages to come through this and prosper it'll destroy the EU so they're going to try and make sure it doesn't happen.

[Kirkland Laing]

That is outrageous, I read and follow my financial news daily and read excellent writers like Ha Joon Chang. I know my fundamentals and can interpret the year on year price of things which is inflation. If you lot knew your basics, the world wouldn't be in such a stew. I live in the world of common sense and not endless charts. You are so bothered by my common sense you have replied to the same person twice. Stop inflating your post count with replies to yourself......that is my forte! Inflation! The only deflation is in wages, oil and in banks hoarding printed money as they should be bankrupt. Everything else is INFLATION. Even fuel is inflation as the price is not being passed onto the consumer. Corporations are making more money! It is faux deflation for the consumer.

You were mocking me about my inability to forecast last years collapse too, but with QE it was very difficult. Are you feeling it a little more for this year? I hope prices do come down some, but not a load of unemployed people as the price worth paying. Bankers really have to go with their make it up as they go along nonsense. They should stick to common sense. And this is all at ZIRP!

I googled this name and this is the first thing that comes up :

Why did Britain’s political class buy into the Tories’ economic fairytale? | Ha-Joon Chang | Comment is free | The Guardian

This guy is a conventional economist. He knows what he's talking about.

How the fuck did he get through the force field? You'll note in that article he quotes GDP figures and inflation numbers and doesn't question their accuracy. In fact those numbers are the basis for the arguments he's making in the article.

So how the fuck does this square with you and your nutty ideas about bullshit statistics? Hmmm?

Hmmmm?

[El Kabong]

You read/follow Vox HAHAHAHAHA...how typical