Marquez - Cotto @ a Catchweight of 147-150 ?

[Master]

Great. The pretend ex middleweight champion fighting a used up welterweight...at catch weight. Boxing is becoming a freak show.

Poor version of Canelo v Khan.

Good comparison, @Master

Except that I think it's a better, more competitive version. Both JMM and Khan are campaigning at welter. Difference is Cotto is legitimately a LMW, while Canelo is a full-blown MW. A Cotto on fight night will weigh around 154 to 156, guaranteed. Canelo meanwhile, will come into the ring at around 175. Assuming Khan and JMM would be around the same size, there's no comparison in the weight differences. Also, a bulked-up JMM could make his punches felt on Cotto more than a dancing Khan would on Canelo.

I say poor mans version because Cotto would easily beat JMM.

[TitoFan]

Great. The pretend ex middleweight champion fighting a used up welterweight...at catch weight. Boxing is becoming a freak show.

Poor version of Canelo v Khan.

Good comparison, @Master

Except that I think it's a better, more competitive version. Both JMM and Khan are campaigning at welter. Difference is Cotto is legitimately a LMW, while Canelo is a full-blown MW. A Cotto on fight night will weigh around 154 to 156, guaranteed. Canelo meanwhile, will come into the ring at around 175. Assuming Khan and JMM would be around the same size, there's no comparison in the weight differences. Also, a bulked-up JMM could make his punches felt on Cotto more than a dancing Khan would on Canelo.

I say poor mans version because Cotto would easily beat JMM.

In terms of probability, what would you assign as an upset probability in each fight?
Here's my take:

JMM upset: 20% probability
Khan upset: 2% probability