The adage a good little fighter isn't good enough to beat a good big fighter, and a good boxer isn't good enough to beat a good puncher. A good older fighter isn't good enough to beat a good young fighter is the philosophy of boxing.
The adage a good little fighter isn't good enough to beat a good big fighter, and a good boxer isn't good enough to beat a good puncher. A good older fighter isn't good enough to beat a good young fighter is the philosophy of boxing.
You've got to give Wlad credit, he's pushing 40 going back to back against two of the brightest young powers in heavyweight boxing. One a massive dopey mind fuck merchant with lots of underrated skill, the next an out and out wrecking machine. He deserves props for that.
Firstly Joshua has his hands full too, lets not ignore that. In terms of skill and experience Wlad represents a massive jump in class, over the hill or not. The thing is though, regardless of how skilled or experienced Wlad is it wont change what Joshua does one bit. He'll have a look for a minute but ultimately he'll be looking to take Wlads head off at the first opportunity. He'll be under more pressure, but he wont change.
The issue for Wlad is that other than tying up, his only form of defence is stepping back and waiting until it stops. Attacking Wlad is a relatively low risk task, especially now that he's clearly lost a bit of zip all round, I think we can all agree on that. Fury knew this, and used it against him brilliantly by feinting Wlad out of the fight, if Wlad thinks there's incoming, he doesnt punch back. Wlad also now seems to need a written invitation to let the right hand go. His jab has become more of a tap than the ram rod it should be. When Joshua lets fly, Wlad will do nothing other than move back and wait for it to be over, he's incapable of punishing him for it.
Offensively Wlad is capable of knocking Joshua out, he has the tools and the power, but he seems unable or reluctant to use them. Joshua's chin can be cracked, we all know that and if Wlad summons up a demon right cross from the vaults of muscle memory and it lands on Joshua's chin, dont be surprised if he goes to bye byes.
I think the odds are unlikely. Wlads overriding sense of self preservation and his loss of a half step mean that his once brilliant right hand is now a shadow of its former self. He's like a stone mason splitting a large block. Rather than systematically driving his sledge hammer into his breaking pins he lifts it, lets it fall under no force other than gravity, waits a while, then when the moment is right, repeats.
Unless Joshua freezes, Wlads plan A wont get the job done for me. There will just be too much leather coming in his direction. Wlad is going to have to change, and change big. He will have to fight fire with fire and ignore his predisposition with self preservation. He'll need to be ready for war and give back with interest what Joshua can throw his way. He'll also need to fully commit to his punches, no pity pat stuff.
The good news for Wlad is that Joshua will be a far more static target than Fury. I dont go along with the robot line, but he wont be like a jack in the box, constantly on the move and constantly giving the impression that he's going to punch, Im not sure if Joshua does feints? Joshua will be there to hit and if Wlad can muster up the gumption he will have a target. The big question is can he, or more importantly will he?
I just dont know if Wlad has it in him at this stage.
When God said to the both of us "Which one of you wants to be Sugar Ray?" I guess I didnt raise my hand fast enough
Charley Burley
Remind me again what we saw in Wlads last fight that would convince me he can cope with speed, pop and sheer momentum of JoshuaWlads on and off dates with Fury were as hard to watch as their actual fight. Long road back. Massive jump up for Joshua though. Stage wise and comp wise. Thinking Joshua pulls a shocker and walks right thru him honestly.
Alright then....Hopkins vs Pavlik, Hopkins vs Cloud, Hopkins vs Pascal?
Wlad has the edge in experience and that's about it, he knows the game and he knows what he can and can't do and sometimes that knowledge gives the fighter an edge. Do I expect Wlad to come out and be the Wlad of old, dominating with the jab, tying up, slowly opening Joshua up for the right hand....not especially. Wlad is older, not sure if he's slower or has lost his timing but he's going to have to be crafty and keep Joshua thinking and THAT is something he can do.
Anthony Joshua is big, bad, he's tough, he's strong, and he's young. Lots of these kinds of fighters see somebody older and they want to peg them, the guy does xyz watch out for that and you'll be ok, you'll walk right through them. Anthony Joshua isn't experienced, he doesn't know what to do when he's hurt in a huge fight like this....Wlad does, Wlad will get back up if he's able to stand, and he'll hold on for dear life and then it's back to jab jab jab jab let me get back in this fight the way he did with Sam Peter.
Wlad will have to try not to be so clever he walks into a trap Anthony has set for him and Anthony will have to avoid hubris....be humble or be humbled.
I think it's a great fight the future of the division could swing on this and regardless of who wins I think they will be the true champion of the division. I hope Wlad wins as always, but this is one where he will be battling the odds. People expecting a slugfest shouldn't go watch the fight though, it's going to be more of a chess match I would assume....the later the fight goes the more advantage I'd give to Wlad.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Wlad TKO 9.....Anthony Joshua is too tight in his upper body and it'll sap his energy
Last edited by red fox; 01-31-2017 at 10:10 AM.
Good point about Joshua being too tight in the upper body. However too much time has gone by I think it's like almost three years that Vladimir has only had three fights and at his age that is bad news
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