The first thing everyone needs to realize is... it's a heavyweight fight with two guys that can bang. Thus, the fight could end with either outcome inside a round or two. Then half the predictions will immediately evaporate. So basically all we can do is try and check off some boxes.

Both have KO power, so it's a wash.
Chins are tough to come by nowadays in the heavyweights, but Wlad has already been KTFO'ed. AJ's been stunned, but advantage AJ.
Stamina is a proven for Wlad, not so with AJ. Advantage Wlad.
Savvy or whatever you want to call it...... could be "survival skills". Definite edge to Wlad, who by now has mastered every trick in the book to survive.
Heart. One of those intangibles. Neither has really been taken to hell and back. When Wlad was taken to hell early in his career, he stayed there. AJ's still a bit untested in that regard. Too tough to call.
Boxing skills. Well... neither is a Wilder, so that's good. Not sure who to favor here.


Going by the numbers, it would seem Wlad has the slight edge. But to me, it's all going to boil down to AJ's preparation for whatever Wlad decides to throw at him. Wlad is well aware that AJ can take him out with one punch. He's going to protect that chin better than Fort Knox protects its gold. If he can maul/ clinch AJ into getting tired, he'll do it for 12 rounds if he has to. If AJ gets careless/ frustrated with Wlad's tactics and reverts to bad habits (ie: forgets about what he practiced in the gym) during the fight.... Wlad's liable to drop a few select bombs in there and catch him. But Wlad's got to be 99% sure when he drops one of those bombs that there's nothing coming back. A counter from AJ could ruin all of Wlad's plans. I mean, Wlad landed 4 punches a round against Tyson Fury.... FOUR. AJ's a considerable bigger KO danger than Fury.

So it's all up to AJ. He can't let himself get winded from grappling with Wlad, or frustrated with Wlad's tactics and drop his guard. If Wlad tries roughhousing, AJ needs to free himself immediately and make him pay.