Quote Originally Posted by Primo Carnera View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Fenster View Post
People backing Parker are not idiots, it's price related not even money, they are not betting £10 to win £10, they're betting £10 to win £70.

I can make a "value" case for backing Parker around 7/1 - You have a 26-year-old in his prime, unbeaten title holder, who has proven he can defend his title away from home, has never once been on the deck let alone stopped, has a 75% sparko ratio, has ended 15 of 18 inside 4 rounds, has successfully won over 12 rounds four times and has proven himself over a variety of styles - from Takam to Dimitrenko to Hughie.

Joshua's flaws - Chin? He's been down and badly rocked. Stamina? He noticeably has slowed, losing rounds through lack of activity a couple of times. Speed? He looks the slower, less fluid mover of the two.

At the odds there's plenty of upside in Parker.
Who do you think will win?
The geezer who is 10/1 on! Of course.

"Value" is determined by whether or not you're betting the correct price, it has nothing to do with the actual price (10/1 on is value in one situation and poor value in another). Now traders (like Silkey) are maths geeks working to margins, percentages and will have ratings, models and whatnot.

In its simplest form - "value" is determined by whether or not the punter thinks the bookie have set the odds correctly. So if I determine Parker is a 5/1 shot and the bookies offer 7/1 I have a "value" bet based on my judgement. If they make him 3/1 I have no bet. Now whether or not my judgement is any good is irrelevant, if it is l'll earn money if it's not i'll go skint. Simple.