Official saddo financial thread

[brocktonblockbust]

I thought you loved cats.... Maybe nuttiness or dogginess would do?

Damn it was a joke about 2 rich cunts.

Miles, here in the US we can buy $375 Tix to Hong Kong or Singapore, hardly means I'm rich FFS.

[walrus]

As i mentioned previous Elon musks Tesla is hitting some waves due to his tweet about taking the company public.

[brocktonblockbust]

The markets are overvalued, the price/earnings ratios are in the 26 range, and 14 is usually the average. They are near historic highs, I think a 15% correction by Thxgiving is definite. US Household debt is $13.2 trillion..... Also at an all-time high.

Bad shit coming. Merry Christmas

[walrus]

Could have some logic on that one but it’s not a given

Bond yields are low which will send more people to equities

In summary, high P/E ratios in a vacuum are not a doomsday predictor, but they still matter. The unique characteristics of the current environment, however, likely should change the way we look at the valuation metric for now.

Certain macro factors at play, such as historically low interest rates, are one difference. The relative attractiveness of stocks given their higher dividend yield compared to bonds, as a result of very loose monetary policy, has pushed P/Es higher. Couple this with subdued inflationary pressures, and this could carry on for some time still.

From a historical perspective, the trailing P/E ratio is still just under one standard deviation from its mean going back over the past 40 years, to 1977. The metric has been higher than its current value approximately 20% of the time since 1977. Similarly, the forward P/E is also just below its one standard deviation point, with data since 1990. The forward metric has been higher than its current value approximately 17% of the time. So although the metrics are near their highest levels, they have been higher.

What the historical data does clearly show, however, is that higher current valuation levels do tend to correspond with low future financial returns. Analyzing the data since October 1977 shows that, on average, P/E ratios in the range of 20-25 generally correspond with a subsequent 12-month return of ~5.7%; echoing sentiment by Vanguard recently, which told investors to expect no better than 4 percent to 6 percent returns from stocks in the next five years.

I lost the rest of the article

[walrus]

@Gandalf u bring up inflation from time to time check this out

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan consumer prices rose 488,865 percent in the 12 months ending in September, a member of the opposition-run congress reported on Monday, as the OPEC nation’s hyperinflation continues to accelerate amid a broader economic collapse.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-v...-idUSKCN1MI1Y6

[brocktonblockbust]

Not fair to troll Miles on Venezuela.

[Gandalf]

@Gandalf u bring up inflation from time to time check this out

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan consumer prices rose 488,865 percent in the 12 months ending in September, a member of the opposition-run congress reported on Monday, as the OPEC nation’s hyperinflation continues to accelerate amid a broader economic collapse.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-v...-idUSKCN1MI1Y6

That is frankly terrifying. isn't it? People living in the here and now with debts are playing a dangerous game by not preparing for rainy days. At least if you held gold or crypto in Venezuela you would have protection. It would be your insurance against financiers and government.

Kirk thinks I am a bit bonkers with my talk of inflation here, but I see it on the ground. There are big problems. Personal debt here is among the highest in the world and rising at one of the fastest rates. China's personal debt is increasing fast, but by contrast it is relatively low. Basically the central bank won't increase interest rates because of these people that have been irresponsible. Then America is increasing rates and money will simply flow there. It will create a currency crisis and then when you factor in massive overbuilding a chronically low birth rate and you have serious issues. Oh, and 100 billion won was lost through poor investment with the national pension fund this year. I'm telling you if you do not act on your negative perceptions, then you will starve and potentially die.

[walrus]

@Gandalf u bring up inflation from time to time check this out

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan consumer prices rose 488,865 percent in the 12 months ending in September, a member of the opposition-run congress reported on Monday, as the OPEC nation’s hyperinflation continues to accelerate amid a broader economic collapse.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-v...-idUSKCN1MI1Y6

That is frankly terrifying. isn't it? People living in the here and now with debts are playing a dangerous game by not preparing for rainy days. At least if you held gold or crypto in Venezuela you would have protection. It would be your insurance against financiers and government.

Kirk thinks I am a bit bonkers with my talk of inflation here, but I see it on the ground. There are big problems. Personal debt here is among the highest in the world and rising at one of the fastest rates. China's personal debt is increasing fast, but by contrast it is relatively low. Basically the central bank won't increase interest rates because of these people that have been irresponsible. Then America is increasing rates and money will simply flow there. It will create a currency crisis and then when you factor in massive overbuilding a chronically low birth rate and you have serious issues. Oh, and 100 billion won was lost through poor investment with the national pension fund this year. I'm telling you if you do not act on your negative perceptions, then you will starve and potentially die.

It’s a shame. People are trying to flee to Argentina but the government is in such collapse there is a shortage of passports. Eggs have actually become currency in Venezuela. Frightening to see