I'm a huge fan of Winky and overall I think that he is a much more well-rounded fighter. However, Pavlik has power and size on his side and a shitload of determination as well. It would come down to Winky's defense vs Pavlik's offense. I definately think that Pavlik has the power to hurt and possible stop Winky (which pains me to say), but if Winky can fight a smart fight for 12 rounds he could eek out a decision. Honestly Pavlik might be too big and strong for Winky but I could also see Winky's defense carrying the fight as Pavlik misses all night. Pavlik also has a huge size and reach advantage over Winky.
My pick is Pavlik, who is behind on all scorecards (legitimately this time), by TKO in the late rounds as Winky tires, slows down, and is overwhelmed by Pavlik's power and workrate.