Work rate? Work rate? Im so sick of hearing this statement. Effectiveness is what will matter. Whoever lands the more effective and telling shots will win the fight. Hopkins is a counter puncher, he lost to Taylor waiting for Taylor to throw em, so he could counter. Against a guy who throws em a lot he will pick him apart. A lefty who throws a lot is the perfect fighter for Hopkins to dominate.

If this fight were 3 years ago this would be a no brainer, Hopkins would kill him. Only thing is Hopkins is so friggin old, 43, too old not to have to give away a couple rounds by coasting. This will be a close fight. Joe will build an early lead until B-Hop can time him and hurt him some and pull out some rounds. Will it be enough? Who knows, but this fight goes 115-113 either way unless Hopkins can KO him.

Fact is, if this were a Prime Hopkins, he'd be a 4-1 favorite! Hopkins against a left hander who throws first, Jeesh, thats what he dreams of. But he is ancient and has to loaf a few rounds. If he can steal a couple close rounds he can win the fight, but just as easily he could lose a couple close ones and lose the fight 116-112.

I've been looking forward to this fight for a while. Even an over the hill Hopkins is still by far the toughest opponent Calzaghe has faced. Too close to pick for me, although I think Hopkins is good money at whatever weight he's been getting. I think betting Joe at -220 is way too risky.