Here's what I see
Pavlik doesn't have the size advantage over Calzaghe, he doesn't have the speed, he only has the power....that's what Lacy had and that's what Kessler had and although I think Pavlik is better than both those guys I think his style and his handspeed leave him wide open for a guy with quick hands to counterpunch him ALL DAY LONG.
Calzaghe will move and counter and just eat Pavlik up....I think Kelly is a limited fighter when it comes to judging his skills other than his power. The BEST fighters Pavlik has beaten (Miranda and Taylor) were drawn into brawls and subsequently lost....Joe Calzaghe is too smart to be forced into a brawl and his hands are fast enough to do real damage to Pavlik.
Calzaghe wins by late stoppage....you can't fight the way Pavlik fights and stick around for a long time
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