Hurricane Season is Upon Us

[Spicoli]

The 2nd tropical storm, Bertha, of the Atlantic hurricane season is now forming from a typical wave from the Cape Verde islands off of Africa. Cape Verde is notorious for breeding many of histories greatest, stongest and most damaging swirling monsters as these formations generally get to spend a lot more time over the seasonably warm ocean waters.

Say hello To Bertha. Below is a 5 day forecast track and as of now it looks to be the type of storm that will form into a hurricane, head towards the Eastern coast, but then turn sharply north, then north east and die off into the much colder Northern Atlantic waters.

But hurricane predictions can change suddenly with just the slightest deviation in jet stream, approaching fronts, wind shear....so many many variables.

5 day forecast track:

National Hurricane Center

Satellite Loop: (This takes a lil bit to load, but Bertha can be seen on far right of screen, heading westerly)

Tropical Atlantic Visible Imagery - Satellite Services Division

Discussion:

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BERTHA CONSISTS OF A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT WAS RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 45 KT. THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGE LITTLE SINCE THAT TIME AND THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT A 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

BERTHA WILL BE PASSING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS SSTS INCREASE AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE THEREAFTER...SO THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS THE INTENSITY JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER....IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS.

BERTHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A LITTLE FASTER
PACE...290/14. THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD...BUT THERE REMAINS TWO DISTINCT ENVELOPES...ONE THAT CONSISTS OF THE HWRF AND GFDL THAT TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND DAY 3....AND THE OTHER WHICH KEEPS BERTHA ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO REFLECT THE SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.9N 29.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 15.7N 32.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 35.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 17.2N 39.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 17.9N 42.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 19.5N 49.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 54.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 59.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Too early in the game for me to follow tracking.Maybe tomorrow .Right now we have a huge rain band sitting over us and the roads are filling fast.Any consistant amount of rain and we have had street flooding about 5 times this year so far,Hurrican or no hurrican.Bertha will cut north but it's the ones trailing her I'll watch Lol.

Car gassed,Backs packed,ATM raided.etc....ready to roll!

[Deanrw]

The 2nd tropical storm, Bertha, of the Atlantic hurricane season is now forming from a typical wave from the Cape Verde islands off of Africa. Cape Verde is notorious for breeding many of histories greatest, stongest and most damaging swirling monsters as these formations generally get to spend a lot more time over the seasonably warm ocean waters.

Say hello To Bertha. Below is a 5 day forecast track and as of now it looks to be the type of storm that will form into a hurricane, head towards the Eastern coast, but then turn sharply north, then north east and die off into the much colder Northern Atlantic waters.

But hurricane predictions can change suddenly with just the slightest deviation in jet stream, approaching fronts, wind shear....so many many variables.

5 day forecast track:

National Hurricane Center

Satellite Loop: (This takes a lil bit to load, but Bertha can be seen on far right of screen, heading westerly)

Tropical Atlantic Visible Imagery - Satellite Services Division

Discussion:

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BERTHA CONSISTS OF A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT WAS RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 45 KT. THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGE LITTLE SINCE THAT TIME AND THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT A 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

BERTHA WILL BE PASSING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS SSTS INCREASE AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE THEREAFTER...SO THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS THE INTENSITY JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER....IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS.

BERTHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A LITTLE FASTER
PACE...290/14. THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD...BUT THERE REMAINS TWO DISTINCT ENVELOPES...ONE THAT CONSISTS OF THE HWRF AND GFDL THAT TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND DAY 3....AND THE OTHER WHICH KEEPS BERTHA ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO REFLECT THE SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.9N 29.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 15.7N 32.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 35.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 17.2N 39.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 17.9N 42.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 19.5N 49.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 54.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 59.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Too early in the game for me to follow tracking.Maybe tomorrow .Right now we have a huge rain band sitting over us and the roads are filling fast.Any consistant amount of rain and we have had street flooding about 5 times this year so far,Hurrican or no hurrican.Bertha will cut north but it's the ones trailing her I'll watch Lol.

Car gassed,Backs packed,ATM raided.etc....ready to roll!

I hate it when they cut north, they should cut all the way to north east to avoid us.

We are due for another one. 2003 was the last time we were hit by Juan.

[TitoFan]

I hate hurricane season.

[El Kabong]

I hate hurricane season.

I rather like it...as we had a drought all last year on account of no storms got anywhere near us......thank you very much Al Gore and your "We're brewing hurricanes" bullcrap!


We need a couple up in NC...I'm not saying we need category 4's and 5's but a 1 and 2 and a depression every now and then would help out greatly.

[Youngblood]

I hate hurricane season.

I rather like it...as we had a drought all last year on account of no storms got anywhere near us......thank you very much Al Gore and your "We're brewing hurricanes" bullcrap!


We need a couple up in NC...I'm not saying we need category 4's and 5's but a 1 and 2 and a depression every now and then would help out greatly.

Ya know there is research done and being followed up on for the manipulation of these beasts. As far as directional and so on.

So far it appears we can't really fight the elements of mother nature as in to stop, or lessen or strengthen much, all basically dictated by the many natural factors that go into building them...but I do think it may at some point be possible to slightly steer them. I know there was some fictional stuff on tv regarding it, thru seeding and so on...but have heard a lot of that was based on actual research and development.

Seeding a long time ago was done and thought and or found to be pointless, but is now being further explored as I understand it.

[TitoFan]

I hate hurricane season.

I rather like it...as we had a drought all last year on account of no storms got anywhere near us......thank you very much Al Gore and your "We're brewing hurricanes" bullcrap!


We need a couple up in NC...I'm not saying we need category 4's and 5's but a 1 and 2 and a depression every now and then would help out greatly.

Well... better a little too much rain than drought, that's for sure. But hurricanes are a b*tch... not only during, but after. Here in P.R. we've hit by two major ones in the past two decades (not mentioning several tropical storms and whatnot) -- Hugo (1989) and Georges (199. It's the being without power, water, and some other basic necessities for days and in some cases weeks. That's even worse than the storm itself.

[Youngblood]

I hate hurricane season.

I rather like it...as we had a drought all last year on account of no storms got anywhere near us......thank you very much Al Gore and your "We're brewing hurricanes" bullcrap!


We need a couple up in NC...I'm not saying we need category 4's and 5's but a 1 and 2 and a depression every now and then would help out greatly.

Well... better a little too much rain than drought, that's for sure. But hurricanes are a b*tch... not only during, but after. Here in P.R. we've hit by two major ones in the past two decades (not mentioning several tropical storms and whatnot) -- Hugo (1989) and Georges (199. It's the being without power, water, and some other basic necessities for days and in some cases weeks. That's even worse than the storm itself.

Yup Titofan...no doubt. Your country and Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti Dominican are pretty much trolling bait for hurricanes.

[mike_tha_man]

Yup move down to Puerto Rico if you want to experience the Hurricane season at full blast.