lets ask Jermain who got the better jab. Kelly is going to wake the haters up, with this one.
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lets ask Jermain who got the better jab. Kelly is going to wake the haters up, with this one.
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I give the jab category to Jermain, but that's a whole other story..
Hopkin's is an amazing fighter, and during the Calzaghe fight he could've won, but did absolutely nothing the second half of the fight..
I actually DO see Pavlik stopping Hopkins.. to beat Pavlik you have to be one of two things.. and those are 1.) tougher than him and just slug it out with him (ex: Miranda's attempt) or 2.) a superior boxer with elite defensive skills (possibly winky wright.. but for an example, i'd say the way Taylor fought the second fight.. very well defensively)
I'm not saying that Pavlik may not get caught with a signature Hopkins counter right and get flash KD'd, but when you look at how Hopkins fought in the Calzaghe fight, it almost seems clear that Kelly will succeed.. Remember the early rounds of the fight where Calzaghe was apprehensive to even breathe.. I don't see Kelly being scared at all, i see him just coming straight forward fearless.. and remember the second half of the fight when calzaghe was finally connecting.. well if Kelly connects, and he will, I don't see Hopkins taking it too well..
Hopkin's has fought elite level fighters constantly, but taking his age into consideration, when you compare him to the other fighters saying that they didn't KO him, so Kelly wouldn't, you really have to compare them a little closer.. Roy Jones fought him so long ago that it's hard to put him in this comparison.. even still there WERE some guys that RJJ did not KO at that time, regardless of that fact that he was a KO machine (ex: james toney) Calzaghe is not a big puncher, DLH hit's hard but was the smaller guy..Winky's not a big puncher.. the main guy that i see with as good of a chance to KO hopkins would have been Taylor.. I think that Kelly, even at a higher weight, will be bringing into the ring a mixture of constant workrate and power that BHop won't be able to handle.. BHop will disrupt Kelly's rhythm and make him uncomfortable.. probably headbutt him and cut him.. maybe knock him down, but i don't see him getting out of a 12 round fight with Pavlik.
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Pavlik is good and i respect his game but Hopkins will make him look real bad and might even beat him, Hopkins made Calzaghe miss very often and he has much faster hands and footwork than Pavlik, Pavliks jab won't be a factor as Hopkins always takes a best fighters weapons away from them, in his fight with Wright, wright didn't have a jab, it wasn't even a factor.
Another thing is Pavliks power WILL NOT be as good at 170 as it was at 160, One fight that Pavlik hadabove the middleweight limit it went the distance. Pavlik is a accumulation puncher, he doesn't have one punch power and he will have to land frequently on Hopkins to hurt or stop him and that just won't happen, Hopkins won't let it happen.
Personally i see the judges giving the fight to Pavlik if it is close and it will be close because he is the rising undefeated star, why would the judges give the fight to a past it 43 year old veteran.
Who besides Roy JOnes, who has landed clean shots on Hopkins consistently? IN the last 5 years who has landed a lot of clean effective punches on Hopkins? Taylor had a tough time, Calzaghe had a tough time and those punch stat numbers were absolute bullshit.
Bernard walked through every single punch Tarver landed who is the hardest puncher at 175. People are making Pavlik's power out to be something its not, he has foughten a lot of weak competition, and way smaller guys, and the one time he KO'ed Taylor, it was because Taylor was totally gased and it was a beautiful punch he didn't see. Taylor came back and took everything Pavlik had to give in the second fight. As for Miranda's chin we saw what happened against Abraham.
I never mentioend WInky or Oscar would knock Hopkins out, obviously they were smaller and didn't hit very hard for a middlewieght(Winky didn't hit hard at any weight), but they have way better jabs then Pavlik.
And for your two things that are needed to beat Pavlik, Hopkins is absolutely the second one. Beside Mayweather he has as good of a defense as anyone(way up there with Winky), but more importantly he is the best at negating an opponent offense. Calzaghe is much faster then Pavlik and puts a much more intense pressure on an opponent then Pavlik does which you will see when HOpkins fights him.
Also people are counting in Hopkins' power. He will hit Pavlik harder because he will land cleaner then any opponent Pavlik has faced up until now. Miranda was probably the hardest hitter at middleweight, but he had not snap on his punches, adn they were easy to see. Hopkins is the best person in the pros and hiding his right hand.
If you look at Taylor before he fought Hopkins he was throwing tons of punches he was pressure boxer who threw a lot of punches, but Hopkins brought those punch figures down to 1/2 what they were before the two fought.
I feel Hopkins got a second wind against Calzaghe, and 2 of the last 3 rounds. Sure the low blow helped, but I am not saying that Pavlik won't beat Hopkins down because of Hopkins' inactivity, thats why he has lost the fights he has since the Roy JOnes fight, and I have Pavlik winning this fight as often as losing it, but it will be a close, low activity fight with Hopkins dictating the fight more then he was able to against Winky or Calzaghe who used a lot of foot movement to keep up with him.
Pavlik is a good champion, but Hopkins is a ATG, and don't forget that. Remember what Monzon did when he was older, what Robinson did, what Foreman did, why Moore did, remember what Hopkins has done in his last 3 fights.
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