It looks like it's going to be Obama unfortunately. What will probably clinch it for him is the economy continuing to go south. Americans will not want another four years of Bush economics come November. It's starting to look like the subprime meltdown was the tip of the iceberg and there'll be plenty more bad news between now and November, although I'm guessing the worst won't become apparent till after the election. But there'll be more than enough problems to sink McCain no matter how dirty his campaign gets over the next few months.