I understand the need/want to micro-manage these sorts of things, by trying to figure out specific movements, counters and strikes and such, but I personally would try a different route (if possible), that will often yield good results.

That being, trying to find sparring partners that as closely resemble your opponent and their style, and getting as much work in with them as possible. I'm doing this now, as have a fight coming up with a bull rushing KO artist. So I'm trying to do more rounds with these kinds of guys, and even asking them to tailer their styles a bit, and do certain things in sparring that I expect I'll be up against come fight night.

I realize a variety of sparring isn't always possible, but if it is for you, that will help you more then anything.