Will Pacquiao duck Mayweather?

[zhubin]

Actually, no. From a business standpoint Mayweather is bigger than Pacquiao. In terms of popularity in the US Mayweather is bigger than Pacquiao. I will agree that Pacquiao is more entertaining to most/me (but this is all opinion as some appreciate the science more).

Unless Pacquiao does huge numbers in his fight with Cotto (sans Cotto's share of viewership), I can't see how Arum can even think about 50%.

In business, the topic i'm discussing, the only thing that matters is the bottom line. Who puts on the best show is irrelevant because that doesn't always equal viewership. I love Michael Katsidis's style, but there's a reason he was on the undercard of the Mayweather fight.

Simply put, Mayweather's numbers are, at this point, better than Pacquiao's numbers and unless Pacquiao (along with Cotto) does something to reverse that, 50% is simply foolish.

I have to disagree. I don't have the PPV numbers for both fighters...but right now...i think they are equal in popularity and it wouldn't shock me if Pac was even more popular. Especially after the Delahoya fight...Pac took his name to a new level. And when i took to most casual boxing fans...they certainly get more excited about Pac than Floyd. Again..Floyd mainly sells fights extremely well because he plays the loud mouth villain role so well. Sure, his technical brilliance is enjoyed by some...but his fighting style does not translate into a huge fan base. But a lot of people are excited about Pac in general. Not to mention 2 huge demographics know him very well: the Filipino and the Mexican fan base. Again...none of this has anything to do with who i think will win. But Pac, whether you agree with it or not, is the current pfp champ...and AS POPULAR a fighter as there is in the sport. And lets not oversell Floyd's ability to promote/sell fights. AFTER ALL...his biggest draw was the Oscar fight...and we all know Oscar could sell out stadiums fighting bums. Hatton also brought his huge fan base and overseas contigency to the table. Floyd, overall, hasn't been a huge PPV seller BY HIMSELF like someone like Oscar. I guarantee the Pac vs. Cotto fight will sell more than Mayweather vs. Marquez. IF Pac wins that fight...his popularity and pfp ranking will soar even more...and Floyd will not have much in the form of making contract demands.

No, i'm afraid you're wrong.

Mayweather's numbers against the same opponents are better. Oscar/Hatton were the reasons for the majority of viewership in their fights with Mayweather, but they were also the reason for the majority of viewership in their fights with Pacquiao. The only difference is their fights with Mayweather sold better than their fights with Pacquiao.

Again, i'm not debating who is more entertaining. I agree, to myself, Pacquiao is more entertaining. I'm talking purely from a business stand point. In business, things like p4p rankings hold no weight. In business all that matters is the bottom line. What matters is who sells more and at this point Mayweather does. He is also more popular in the USA.

In order for Pacquiao to get the money he wants, he will have to do great numbers with Cotto. Not just solid numbers or good numbers, he will have to do great.

I just don't see, from a business stand point, how Arum can ask for 50%. And if Pacquiao's fight against Cotto sells less than Mayweather/Marquez, he'll be lucky to get a 60/40 split.

Do you have the numbers to back up your claims? Again, not saying one fighter is overwhelmingly more popular than the other...but i think Pac is at least on par with Floyd. Not to mention Pac's popularity is steadily rising. IF HE BEATS Cotto...Floyd will not have the upper hand in the negotiations. Story lines sell...and right now Pac is like David vs. Goliath. He beat physically "bigger" fighters in Hatton, Delahoya, and maybe Cotto. Floyd's last win came over the undersized Marquez. Pac is just riding the bigger wave...and it will only get bigger if he beats Cotto.

[knodaledge]

I have to disagree. I don't have the PPV numbers for both fighters...but right now...i think they are equal in popularity and it wouldn't shock me if Pac was even more popular. Especially after the Delahoya fight...Pac took his name to a new level. And when i took to most casual boxing fans...they certainly get more excited about Pac than Floyd. Again..Floyd mainly sells fights extremely well because he plays the loud mouth villain role so well. Sure, his technical brilliance is enjoyed by some...but his fighting style does not translate into a huge fan base. But a lot of people are excited about Pac in general. Not to mention 2 huge demographics know him very well: the Filipino and the Mexican fan base. Again...none of this has anything to do with who i think will win. But Pac, whether you agree with it or not, is the current pfp champ...and AS POPULAR a fighter as there is in the sport. And lets not oversell Floyd's ability to promote/sell fights. AFTER ALL...his biggest draw was the Oscar fight...and we all know Oscar could sell out stadiums fighting bums. Hatton also brought his huge fan base and overseas contigency to the table. Floyd, overall, hasn't been a huge PPV seller BY HIMSELF like someone like Oscar. I guarantee the Pac vs. Cotto fight will sell more than Mayweather vs. Marquez. IF Pac wins that fight...his popularity and pfp ranking will soar even more...and Floyd will not have much in the form of making contract demands.

No, i'm afraid you're wrong.

Mayweather's numbers against the same opponents are better. Oscar/Hatton were the reasons for the majority of viewership in their fights with Mayweather, but they were also the reason for the majority of viewership in their fights with Pacquiao. The only difference is their fights with Mayweather sold better than their fights with Pacquiao.

Again, i'm not debating who is more entertaining. I agree, to myself, Pacquiao is more entertaining. I'm talking purely from a business stand point. In business, things like p4p rankings hold no weight. In business all that matters is the bottom line. What matters is who sells more and at this point Mayweather does. He is also more popular in the USA.

In order for Pacquiao to get the money he wants, he will have to do great numbers with Cotto. Not just solid numbers or good numbers, he will have to do great.

I just don't see, from a business stand point, how Arum can ask for 50%. And if Pacquiao's fight against Cotto sells less than Mayweather/Marquez, he'll be lucky to get a 60/40 split.

Do you have the numbers to back up your claims? Again, not saying one fighter is overwhelmingly more popular than the other...but i think Pac is at least on par with Floyd. Not to mention Pac's popularity is steadily rising. IF HE BEATS Cotto...Floyd will not have the upper hand in the negotiations. Story lines sell...and right now Pac is like David vs. Goliath. He beat physically "bigger" fighters in Hatton, Delahoya, and maybe Cotto. Floyd's last win came over the undersized Marquez. Pac is just riding the bigger wave...and it will only get bigger if he beats Cotto.

If Pacquiao wins, even in dominating fashion, but the fight doesn't sell, no he will not have the upperhand in contractual dealings. I'm not saying he won't get the split because Arum is a smart businessman, i'm just saying Mayweather's people will have the leverage while negotiating

It's simple math. The bigger monetary draw recieves the lions share of the money. When the numbers are posted side by side, as I will post now since you asked, Mayweather is easily the bigger monetary draw. Not only the bigger draw but also the bigger star on US soil.

Here are the numbers

Pay Per View Sales:


Vs Delahoya
Mayweather: 2.4 million
Pacquiao: 1.2 million

Vs. Marquez
Mayweather: 1.0 million
Pacquiao: 400K

Vs Hatton
Mayweather: 950K
Pacquiao: 825K

Total:
Mayweather: 4,35 million
Pacquiao: 2.43 million

Other Opponents

Mayweather vs Baldomir: 325K
Pacquiao vs Diaz: 175K

Mayweather vs Judah: 390K
Pacquiao vs Barrera: 350K

Box Office Sales:

Vs Delahoya
Mayweather: 17,078 attendance; $18.4 million revenue (the record)
Pacquiao: 14,468 attendance; $14.4 million revenue

Vs. Marquez:
Mayweather: 13,116 attendance
Pacquiao: 11,061 attendance

Vs Hatton:
Mayweather: 15,488 attendance; $10.4 million revenue
Pacquiao: 15,368 attendance, $8.8 million revenue

[zhubin]

No, i'm afraid you're wrong.

Mayweather's numbers against the same opponents are better. Oscar/Hatton were the reasons for the majority of viewership in their fights with Mayweather, but they were also the reason for the majority of viewership in their fights with Pacquiao. The only difference is their fights with Mayweather sold better than their fights with Pacquiao.

Again, i'm not debating who is more entertaining. I agree, to myself, Pacquiao is more entertaining. I'm talking purely from a business stand point. In business, things like p4p rankings hold no weight. In business all that matters is the bottom line. What matters is who sells more and at this point Mayweather does. He is also more popular in the USA.

In order for Pacquiao to get the money he wants, he will have to do great numbers with Cotto. Not just solid numbers or good numbers, he will have to do great.

I just don't see, from a business stand point, how Arum can ask for 50%. And if Pacquiao's fight against Cotto sells less than Mayweather/Marquez, he'll be lucky to get a 60/40 split.

Do you have the numbers to back up your claims? Again, not saying one fighter is overwhelmingly more popular than the other...but i think Pac is at least on par with Floyd. Not to mention Pac's popularity is steadily rising. IF HE BEATS Cotto...Floyd will not have the upper hand in the negotiations. Story lines sell...and right now Pac is like David vs. Goliath. He beat physically "bigger" fighters in Hatton, Delahoya, and maybe Cotto. Floyd's last win came over the undersized Marquez. Pac is just riding the bigger wave...and it will only get bigger if he beats Cotto.

If Pacquiao wins, even in dominating fashion, but the fight doesn't sell, no he will not have the upperhand in contractual dealings. I'm not saying he won't get the split because Arum is a smart businessman, i'm just saying Mayweather's people will have the leverage while negotiating

It's simple math. The bigger monetary draw recieves the lions share of the money. When the numbers are posted side by side, as I will post now since you asked, Mayweather is easily the bigger monetary draw. Not only the bigger draw but also the bigger star on US soil.

Here are the numbers

Pay Per View Sales:


Vs Delahoya
Mayweather: 2.4 million
Pacquiao: 1.2 million

Vs. Marquez
Mayweather: 1.0 million
Pacquiao: 400K

Vs Hatton
Mayweather: 950K
Pacquiao: 825K

Total:
Mayweather: 4,35 million
Pacquiao: 2.43 million

Other Opponents

Mayweather vs Baldomir: 325K
Pacquiao vs Diaz: 175K

Mayweather vs Judah: 390K
Pacquiao vs Barrera: 350K

Box Office Sales:

Vs Delahoya
Mayweather: 17,078 attendance; $18.4 million revenue (the record)
Pacquiao: 14,468 attendance; $14.4 million revenue

Vs. Marquez:
Mayweather: 13,116 attendance
Pacquiao: 11,061 attendance

Vs Hatton:
Mayweather: 15,488 attendance; $10.4 million revenue
Pacquiao: 15,368 attendance, $8.8 million revenue

Thanks for posting the numbers...i stand corrected. But i still feel Pac's popularity is increasing at a dramatic rate. If he pulls off a win over Cotto...it will be difficult for Floyd to play hardball. Floyd can quote the numbers all he wants...but with a win over Cotto...Pac clearly cements his status as pfp champ. Whether it's valid or not...with a win over Cotto...the major perception will be that Pac is the little man who is beating the big guys.