I honestly reckon that Haye should be the first to beat Valuev on home turf. (The reason I say this, is that if Holyfield lost to Valuev, then certainly Chagaev lost to Valuev...but the German scoring argument is another debate entirely.

If Haye plays it smart, and boxes his way through, then he's a dead cert, as no-one can give Valuev a round when he struggles to land any punches (hopefully), but if Haye goes for the KO, as he probably will do, throwing big shots at a chin the size of most people's heads, then it's a result that really depends on the matter behind Valuev's chin. If it's granite, he wins, anything softer, and Haye will finish him.