Let's be realistic - what are the odds that Haye pulls off an upset?

[Mars_ax]

My own view is the history of the sport is that odds of more than 4 or 5-1 should almost never be exceeded. Weird stuff happens.

I think 13 belongs at the low end of that spectrum. He has one chance in five.

True, weird things happen, maybe Wlad will get hit by lightening during the fight, or go flying out of the ring like Kermit Cintron. I'll still stick with my one chance in twenty, if i'm wrong you'll still have to eat as much crow as I will...

[marbleheadmaui]

My own view is the history of the sport is that odds of more than 4 or 5-1 should almost never be exceeded. Weird stuff happens.

I think 13 belongs at the low end of that spectrum. He has one chance in five.

True, weird things happen, maybe Wlad will get hit by lightening during the fight, or go flying out of the ring like Kermit Cintron. I'll still stick with my one chance in twenty, if i'm wrong you'll still have to eat as much crow as I will...

LOL, this is true! Like you I'm pretty comfortable though. Some here are imparting traits to 13 he has never shown as a heavy to argue his chance.

[Mars_ax]

He found openings vs Sam Peter in the first round of their fight.....he's ready to give the boxing world a first round KO....BUT, he wants to punish his opponent so he may carry him a while.

I just wonder this, Who stops the fight first: Wlad, the Ref, or the opposing corner?

I can't see Wlad carrying Haye for a while to punish him, that's just trash talk, and there's always a possibility it could backfire.
I guarantee that there's no way that Manny Steward lets Wlad do that shit.

[marbleheadmaui]

Realistically I'm not going to pay any attention to what a pactard has to say about boxing, because let's face it none of them have a clue about anything apart from one fighter.

Now on the subject matter the question shouldn't be what are the chances of Haye winning it should be what are the chances of haye landing first.

I don't believe either fighter is going to come out throwing bombs I expect the first three rounds to be very tactical with little going on from either man.

I give haye a 35-40% chance of landing first, taking into account wlads height and reach advantage. If haye lands first with something big he wins.

Hey Horntard, how 'bout canning the "pactard" insults OK, cocksucker? If you've ever bothered to read any of my posts, Pacquiao is just one of about 20 pugs I like to watch fight and not even my favorite, so fucking blow me asshole.
That is all.

Touch a nerve did I?

Not really, I just don't understand why you feel the need to act like a childish jack-off, makes me wonder if it's an ego thing, or are you just really that fucking stupid.

Anyway Horntard, have fun on my ignore list, you're my first here at Saddo.

This place has one of those? COOL!

[marbleheadmaui]

He found openings vs Sam Peter in the first round of their fight.....he's ready to give the boxing world a first round KO....BUT, he wants to punish his opponent so he may carry him a while.

I just wonder this, Who stops the fight first: Wlad, the Ref, or the opposing corner?

I think it's the timekeeper with his tenth slap of the canvas. I really see a clean, quick KO here.

[Mars_ax]

My own view is the history of the sport is that odds of more than 4 or 5-1 should almost never be exceeded. Weird stuff happens.

I think 13 belongs at the low end of that spectrum. He has one chance in five.

True, weird things happen, maybe Wlad will get hit by lightening during the fight, or go flying out of the ring like Kermit Cintron. I'll still stick with my one chance in twenty, if i'm wrong you'll still have to eat as much crow as I will...

LOL, this is true! Like you I'm pretty comfortable though. Some here are imparting traits to 13 he has never shown as a heavy to argue his chance.

The last Brit fighter I underestimated was Joe Calzaghe, I convinced myself that he was a paper tiger and/or an overrated fraud before his fight with Lacy. Boy was I ever wrong!

Haye however, ain't no Joe Calzaghe, his skill level is not even close to Joe's. Haye's fans can impart all the imaginary traits they want, but it ain't gonna help Haye win the fight.

[Mars_ax]

Anyway Horntard, have fun on my ignore list, you're my first here at Saddo.

This place has one of those? COOL!

Yup, it works like a charm, click on the 'tard's profile you wanna ignore, then on the column on the left you'll see 'Add to Ignore list' click on that, confirm it, and walla, you don't see their bullshit anymore, lovely feature.

[Hornfinger]

Realistically I'm not going to pay any attention to what a pactard has to say about boxing, because let's face it none of them have a clue about anything apart from one fighter.

Now on the subject matter the question shouldn't be what are the chances of Haye winning it should be what are the chances of haye landing first.

I don't believe either fighter is going to come out throwing bombs I expect the first three rounds to be very tactical with little going on from either man.

I give haye a 35-40% chance of landing first, taking into account wlads height and reach advantage. If haye lands first with something big he wins.

Hey Horntard, how 'bout canning the "pactard" insults OK, cocksucker? If you've ever bothered to read any of my posts, Pacquiao is just one of about 20 pugs I like to watch fight and not even my favorite, so fucking blow me asshole.
That is all.

Touch a nerve did I?

Not really, I just don't understand why you feel the need to act like a childish jack-off, makes me wonder if it's an ego thing, or are you just really that fucking stupid.

Anyway Horntard, have fun on my ignore list, you're my first here at Saddo.

Fantastic. You won't see me say this then will you pactard.....

Mars_ax ------> Whaaahhhhh I'm not a pactard! Say I'm not a pactard!

[Fenster]

Oddschecker is running about

8/13 (-162) Wlad Any Means
5/4 (+120) Wlad by KO, TKO, DQ
7/2 (+350) Wlad by decision

17/10 (+170) Haye Any Means
2/1 (+200) Haye by KO, TKO, DQ
8/1 (+800) Haye by decision

44/1 (+4400) Draw

If you feel 95% certain Wlad will win those aren't bad odds to lay down some scratch. Personally I favor Wlad but only slightly 55/45 or 60/40 maybe and the punters putting down cash tend to agree with me. What looks interesting to me is Haye by decision it is possible, and paying out quite strong.

Good info Killer, I feel 95% certain that Wlad will stop this clown within 8 rounds. Wlad is going to be at his absolute peak for this fight, and ready to make a statement. I believe we're going to see a much more aggressive Wlad, not holding back from throwing his big right as he often times does. I can already tell what Manny Steward is going to tell Wlad right before the fight starts: "Go knock this mother-fucker out".

As for betting, I rarely do unless the odds are right, I wouldn't get a big enough return betting on Wlad unless I bet a shitload of money. What I really like is betting on an underdog, when I think they have a good chance of winning.

Not bad odds is an understatement. You are getting fantastic value.

You believe Wlad's odds should be 1/20 for a KO. The bookies make it 5/4.

$100 bucks on a 1/20 shot returns $105.
$100 bucks on a 5/4 shot returns $225.

IF you truly trust your judgement this is an opportunity not to miss. If you was a betting man you'd think you've won the lottery.

[Hornfinger]

I think the odds are quite poor for a Haye KO win. 2/1? I thought it'd be more like 5/1

Also Haye by decision in germany should be at least 1000/1

[erics44]

if haye wins it is only a minor upset

[Fenster]

I think the odds are quite poor for a Haye KO win. 2/1? I thought it'd be more like 5/1

Also Haye by decision in germany should be at least 1000/1

Wlad has been knocked down 50 times. Haye has a 90% KO ratio. And the unlikelihood of a Haye decision is factored into the price.

Personally, I think Haye's odds are too short. Which is making Wlad look worth a bet. However, I certainly won't be backing against Haye.

[Hornfinger]

I'm going to put money on a haye KO and also I'll choose a round.

[Mars_ax]

If you feel 95% certain Wlad will win those aren't bad odds to lay down some scratch. Personally I favor Wlad but only slightly 55/45 or 60/40 maybe and the punters putting down cash tend to agree with me. What looks interesting to me is Haye by decision it is possible, and paying out quite strong.

Good info Killer, I feel 95% certain that Wlad will stop this clown within 8 rounds. Wlad is going to be at his absolute peak for this fight, and ready to make a statement. I believe we're going to see a much more aggressive Wlad, not holding back from throwing his big right as he often times does. I can already tell what Manny Steward is going to tell Wlad right before the fight starts: "Go knock this mother-fucker out".

As for betting, I rarely do unless the odds are right, I wouldn't get a big enough return betting on Wlad unless I bet a shitload of money. What I really like is betting on an underdog, when I think they have a good chance of winning.

Not bad odds is an understatement. You are getting fantastic value.

You believe Wlad's odds should be 1/20 for a KO. The bookies make it 5/4.

$100 bucks on a 1/20 shot returns $105.
$100 bucks on a 5/4 shot returns $225.

IF you truly trust your judgement this is an opportunity not to miss. If you was a betting man you'd think you've won the lottery.

Not a bad return on the 5/4 shot, for Wlad, just saying, I don't bet on fights that often, but when I do it's usually a bet on an underdog who I believe has a great chance of winning. For example: if I thought Haye had a good chance of winning I might would have bet on him.

I need to at least triple or quadruple my original bet or i'm not going to mess with it.

[Taffturner]

I think haye has a gud chance of a ko win, haye has geniune ko power and is lethal at finishing fights when he hurts a man, hes also alot quicker than any1 wlads faced b4, saying that if haye gets caught no one really knows how his chin will hold up?!? At least its finally a HW clash worth watching!

I'm not talking about betting odds, realistically I give Haye less then a 5% chance of knocking Wlad out, and that's Haye's only chance, because he has zero chance of "outboxing/outworking" Wlad and winning a decision.

Why does Haye have less then a 5% chance of winning and only by KO, you ask?:

#1. As mentioned, Haye has zero chance of out-boxing Wlad and winning a decision. Wlad is a much more skilled boxer, with twice the ring experience as a Pro, and at least 5 times more HW title fights. So forget about Haye winning a decision, it ain't gonna happen.

#2. Haye is "speedy" and has a bit of power, but let's be real here, it's not like Wlad hasn't faced big punchers before. These days because of his improved defense, size and reach, it's not that easy to hit Wlad with clean effective punches. Especially when you're getting a heavy jab in your face, and getting pounded with powerful straight right hands. Getting that one big shot in, that turns the fight around for Haye, will be about as likely as him winning the lottery.

#3. Manny Steward is going to have Wlad well prepared for this fight, he'll be in the best shape ever, and put on his best performance ever in front of his adopted home-crowd in Germany. I also believe we're going to see everyone of Haye's weaknesses exposed, including his chin/stamina, and lack of experience at the elite level. Haye's wild, desperate swings, in an attempt to get a KO, will only make him look like an amateur.

Anyway, that's my take, if i'm wrong, feel free to have a go at me July 3rd.