Boxing Preview: Jermain Taylor vs. Kelly Pavlik

Prediction: September 29 is Jermain Taylor’s Coming Out Party

I am not a big Jermain “Bad Intentions” Taylor fan. I have no problem admitting that. This is because, in my opinion, he is an HBO-creation: over-hyped by HBO to be the next future superstar, so that HBO could make money off him. This hype and accolade would be fine if he backed up the hype with

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real and true results; i.e., Floyd Mayweather, Jr. I want to like Jermain Taylor, but he has not shown me to this point that he is a true superstar or legend.

In his last five fights, on my scorecards, he drew with Bernard Hopkins in their first fight, lost to Hopkins in their second fight, lost to Winky Wright, unimpressively beat Kassim Ouma, and lost to Cory Spinks.

As we all know, the judges have always seemed to score points, rounds, and fights in his favor. In fact, I am surprised, given all the gift decisions that Taylor has received, that he did not win a decision against Winky Wright. Well, maybe his swollen-up eye had something to do with that.

I think Jermain Taylor has skill, no doubt. When he is on his game, he throws straight punches, including an above-average jab. He will also take risks and throw flashy, scoring combinations.

Also, at times, he shows pretty good balance and good ring-generalmanship – he is aggressive and puts pressure on his opponent. Other times, he does not get his punches off. He lets his opponent dictate the fight and waits to counterpunch, even though, in my opinion, he is not a great counter-puncher.

Simply put, his fighting game has been inconsistent. This inconsistency has been pointed out numerous times in the corner by current trainer, Emmanuel Steward. Taylor, to this point in his training with Steward, has not done a good job of listening to Steward’s commands. It is unfortunate because Taylor would be a much better fighter if he did.

Although Taylor has received help in scoring by the judges, Taylor has to be commended for taking on top fighters. The recent fighters he has fought all have been world champions and two are sure-fire Hall-of-Famers.

This learning-on-the-job and trial-by-fire will serve Jermain Taylor well, particularly in his upcoming fight with Kelly “The Ghost” Pavlik. Pavlik has not fought near the same level of competition. Above all, what impresses me about Taylor is his chin. Some may say it really has not been tested to this point. But, to me, I see that Taylor can take a good punch. To my knowledge, in his 28 pro fights, he has never been knocked down once. That is impressive.

What has not been impressive to me is his lack of power. Simply put, in Taylor’s last five fights, he has not scored a knockdown. Forget about knockouts. He did not score even one knockdown. Admittedly, scoring knockdowns against Hopkins, Wright, and Spinks was difficult given their slickness and defense. But, Ouma, a come-forward fighter, who has fought during his career at lower weight classes and who had recently been knocked down by Marco Antonio Rubio and Roman Karmazin, should have felt the canvass against Taylor.

Taylor’s punches look powerful to the audience and judges because he throws them so hard, but they simply have not had the same impact on his opponents that they have had on the judges. Even if Taylor does not own one-punch knockout power, it would be nice to see him score some knockdowns or knockouts by an accumulation of punches, like Hopkins did previously in his career.

These critiques, both good and bad, aside, I see Jermain Taylor showing us in the Kelly Pavlik fight on September 29, 2007 why he is a blue-chip fighter and why he is a champion. In my opinion, this will be Jermain Taylor’s coming out party.

I see Taylor showing us a good jab, good speed, good combination punching, and good balance, and winning a legitimate, uncontroversial decision. In my opinion, Taylor’s jab and speed should and will win him this fight.

This is not to take anything away from Kelly Pavlik. Pavlik is a strong, aggressive, and relentless fighter. He throws combinations from different angles. He always attacks his opponents. Pavlik’s performance against Edison Miranda was truly remarkable.

But, let’s face it, although the Pavlik versus Miranda fight was fun for the fans because both fighters were standing in front of each other trading punches, it was simply a slugfest. Both fighters eschewed defense and relied on their power to hurt each other. Edison Miranda, although an exciting boxer with a lot of power, did not have the boxing skills and the jab to beat Kelly Pavlik.

From my review of Pavlik’s prior matches, including the Miranda fight, I think Pavlik will lose because his punches, probably due to his long arms, are not fast enough and are long and looping. Pavlik’s height and length could be a factor in the fight against Taylor, but I do not think Pavlik has the jab to really make use of these advantages.

If Pavlik wins, I look for his right uppercut and pure relentlessness or activity to carry him to victory. I anticipate Taylor will effectively neutralize Pavlik’s activity by strategic clinching. In the end, however, it will be Taylor’s skill and speed that earns him the decision.

For years, I have been saying I hope Jermain Taylor proves me wrong. Given my prediction, I now can say I hope Taylor proves me right. It’s time to party!