Boxing as a sport is crazy enough that you never know what is going to happen, at any one moment even after being beaten up for 9 rounds a fighter can come back with one punch and change the fight in an instance and its a rude awakening for the guy that gets cracked, ask Mike Jones; then add the contrversy of bought judges, PED's, and dieuretics and you really never know what the outcome will be.
Chavez is bigger, stronger, taller, and has one of the best hooks to the body since Cotto in his earlier days. Martinez is quicker, sharper with his punches, and has more over all boxing ability. Thats really as far as i want to go with it, I really would like to just let it play out and see what happens. The chance that I see Chavez having is that Martinez is going to want to knock Chavez out so he is going to be in the pocket alot more throwing everything he's got at Chavez who does have a durable chin. While Martinez is attacking the head, Chavez will have a chance to attack to the body and slow the older man down. Martinez has been knocked down in several fights so I dont think its out of this world to think that Chavez can get a knockdown at some point in the fight.
Martinez obviously has to keep away but I think his anger wont let him, he is going to want to knockout Jr. to make sure he doesnt get screwed by the judges and because I think he is alot more emotional about this fight then previous ones and at some point he is really going to want to hurt Chavez and that is where Chavez will either rise to the occasion and throw to the body or he wont, either way we see what he's made of on Saturday.
So I see it as a 65-35 fight in favor of Martinez but with some subplots (age, last few perfomances on both sides, fighter focus) that could make this the fight of the year. There are too many suspicious things in Chavez's background for me to really root for him whole-heartedly but I hope that if he pulls this off that he does it cleanly and with zero controversy...unfortunately I dont think thats going to happen.
Chavez Jr.’s Weight Conflict– Certifying Physician is Chavez Employee, “Furosemide Doctor” | theboxingtribune.com
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