I'm a little skeptical of Silver and his like. Their means of weighting some polls over others is disconcerting. Pew has the national polls as 3 points for O, Gallup has it 1 point for O and last time I checked Rasmussen I think they had it tied. All three are showing the battleground states also in the 1-3 points range. Obama might pull 300 electoral votes but that would require a lot of the purple states going his way. I think 274-264 is much more reasonable count regardless of winner.