Did you actually watch the Mack fight?

Even if we take your assertion that Mack was severely weight drained as true, it wasn't remotely close... Froch had Mack hurting holding on from the first left hook that he landed, he didn't wear down a drained fighter in a grueling contest.

The 1st was cagey until Froch connected and the 2nd was at a low pace until the last 10 seconds when Froch unloaded... How draining could 2 1/2 rounds at a relatively low pace be?!

As I said, the fight was a bit of a gimme for Froch, no more than an old Brian Magee was though.

You can't use Kessler's performance against Andrade as an example of his ability and then COMPLETELY dismiss Froch's performance against Mack (a guy who is essentially on the exact same level). Got be consistent.

Kes has only fought 3 times since Froch, once against a nobody, once against an old man and most notably stopping Allan Green (which he climbed off the canvass to do).

I can only rate them off recent form and opposition, Froch's has been notably better. With that in mind, it is very plausable to say that Froxh may have progressed and Kessler may have regressed. With that in mind and given just how close the last fight was (not even factoring in the home town disadvantage and the disruption to Froch's travel and preperation) and the fact that Froch's tactics suited Kessler's style and can be changed - is it crazy to suggest that the odds might be slightly tipped in Froch's favour this time?