Tyson Fury to fight Christian Hamer

[Silkeyjoe]

All he is pointing out Ross is that you dont apply the same criteria to judging Fury as you do other fighters, which is fair.

Fury does look like he is going to be better then most (including me) predicted but there still isnt any evidence to suggest he will be as good as you predicted. He still hasnt fought anyone I have thought would beat him

Someone like, oh I dunno, a "hard puncher". Maybe one who also has "a bit of range" even LOL

Is that kinda what you were thinking Silk??

Not necessarily rangey. I would fancy Haye to beat him. Id also favor the winner of Wilder v Stiverne, whoever that may be. THats the fight I really want to see Fury in.

If Stiverne wins he has said he wants Fury. If this is true and it happens Fury becomes WBC champ this year he is not as mobile on his feet as Chisora, he doesn't have Chisoras upper body movement, or work rate. Im not even sure his chin is that good losing by stoppage to a journeyman. He only has power but if he cant even get beyond the jab he's fucked.

I hope your right as I have a significant bet on Fury to become a world champion this year.

I do think you are underestimating Stiverne though. He is pretty slick. Id say he is better at avoiding punches then Chisora. It depends how they win and when the fight with Fury is. If Fury got Stiverne in England hed have a very good chance. I think hed struggle in the states.

Is that bet available for anyone to place?

It is but price is gone. I backed it at 5/1 with ladbrokes but they are now only 9/4 (which I think is still an ok price). We are 15/8. Ladbrokes are shocking at pricing these specials. Won a chunk on Frampton last year. Backed Fury at 5/1, Degale at 3/1, Saunders at 2/1, Groves at 4/1, Selby at 9/4 and Khan at 2/1 this year. Ill be shocked if I dont make a profit

[ross]

You must be very confident that Fury will become world champion if you were willing to part with "significant" money over it?

[Silkeyjoe]

You must be very confident that Fury will become world champion if you were willing to part with "significant" money over it?

Not confident but 5/1 is too big. I dont bet because I think something will win, I bet because the odds are too good allowing me to make money in the long run.

[ross]

You must be very confident that Fury will become world champion if you were willing to part with "significant" money over it?

Not confident but 5/1 is too big. I dont bet because I think something will win, I bet because the odds are too good allowing me to make money in the long run.

Ok

You placed a "significant" bet on something you have no confidence in happening.....

You would also have no confidence in David Cameron becoming a world champion boxer this year. Would you part with the same money?

[Silkeyjoe]

You must be very confident that Fury will become world champion if you were willing to part with "significant" money over it?

Not confident but 5/1 is too big. I dont bet because I think something will win, I bet because the odds are too good allowing me to make money in the long run.

Ok

You placed a "significant" bet on something you have no confidence in happening.....

You would also have no confidence in David Cameron becoming a world champion boxer this year. Would you part with the same money?

You need to understand odds to make money from gambling. For example a coin toss is 50/50. That means fair odds are evens heads and evens tails. If me and you were to have a 10er bet on every toss of a coin for 1000 tosses we would be pretty close to getting 500 wins each meaning we would have 500 wins and 500 losses. If the odds are evens we would break even. What bookies do is over "unfair odds" on this. 5/6 on each side. If this was the case we would still have the same amount of winners but as the odds are less then evens you would lose money. If you could get better odds then even (say 2/1) you would still have 500 winners but as the odds are better you would turn a very good profit.

Above is easy because its easy to calculate the odds on a coin toss but its not so easy in most sports. This is what gives some customers a chance of taking money off bookmakers. I believe fury is a 2/1 shot. What this means is if the same scenario came up over and over again Fury would win a world title once every 3 times. THe odds I got suggest he will only win once in 6. If you consistently beat prices like this you will turn a healthy profit. From my bet on Fury, given the odds I have an expected profit of 100% of my stake. Obviously should the bet win my profit will be 500% of the stake (as the odds are 5/1). I made 9% profit from my personel stakes in 2014 but my expected profit was 15%. This could mean my prices werent as good as I thought but still consistently beating the bookies odds.

[Silkeyjoe]

You must be very confident that Fury will become world champion if you were willing to part with "significant" money over it?

Not confident but 5/1 is too big. I dont bet because I think something will win, I bet because the odds are too good allowing me to make money in the long run.

Ok

You placed a "significant" bet on something you have no confidence in happening.....

You would also have no confidence in David Cameron becoming a world champion boxer this year. Would you part with the same money?

Another way to explain this is you think Fury will beat Stiverne. So you have no confidence in Stiverne? SO will you not back him at any price? 5/1? 10/1? 20/1? 50/1? Everything has its price and if it is wrong it is worth backing, even if you dont think it will win.

[ross]

You must be very confident that Fury will become world champion if you were willing to part with "significant" money over it?

Not confident but 5/1 is too big. I dont bet because I think something will win, I bet because the odds are too good allowing me to make money in the long run.

Ok

You placed a "significant" bet on something you have no confidence in happening.....

You would also have no confidence in David Cameron becoming a world champion boxer this year. Would you part with the same money?

Another way to explain this is you think Fury will beat Stiverne. So you have no confidence in Stiverne? SO will you not back him at any price? 5/1? 10/1? 20/1? 50/1? Everything has its price and if it is wrong it is worth backing, even if you dont think it will win.

50/1 maybe a tenner but certainly nothing significant.

[Silkeyjoe]

You must be very confident that Fury will become world champion if you were willing to part with "significant" money over it?

Not confident but 5/1 is too big. I dont bet because I think something will win, I bet because the odds are too good allowing me to make money in the long run.

Ok

You placed a "significant" bet on something you have no confidence in happening.....

You would also have no confidence in David Cameron becoming a world champion boxer this year. Would you part with the same money?

Another way to explain this is you think Fury will beat Stiverne. So you have no confidence in Stiverne? SO will you not back him at any price? 5/1? 10/1? 20/1? 50/1? Everything has its price and if it is wrong it is worth backing, even if you dont think it will win.

50/1 maybe a tenner but certainly nothing significant.

Significants a subjective word. A 10er may not be significant to you but sigbificant to someone else