General Election 2015

[superheavyrhun]

Miliband isn't getting voted in, and as he's ruled out doing deals with most of the parties that can help him to get a majority, it looks like we're stuck with another Con-Dem coalition, Con-UKIP might also come to pass if UKIP trump the odds to take a few more seats than expected, or even a minority government.

Miliband is a fool, and the fact that he is in charge of the Labour party robs the British people of a decent opposition. The sooner he gets kicked out after the election the better.

[ryanman]

Miliband isn't getting voted in, and as he's ruled out doing deals with most of the parties that can help him to get a majority, it looks like we're stuck with another Con-Dem coalition, Con-UKIP might also come to pass if UKIP trump the odds to take a few more seats than expected, or even a minority government.

Miliband is a fool, and the fact that he is in charge of the Labour party robs the British people of a decent opposition. The sooner he gets kicked out after the election the better.

That's not necessarily true.
Tories cannot win a majority or form a majority coalition. Labour cannot win a majority and because they have ruled out SNP cannot form a majority coalition.

The only options left are minority government or minority coalitions.
A Tory minority would not be viable as the left would vote them down at each turn as a matter of principle.
A Labour minority could potentially work as SNP and Lib Dems will vote on an issue by issue basis. So Labour's policies and budget would have a chance of passing. No formal deal needed.

Even if you don't get a majority, and you can't form a coalition, it isn't the party that gets most seats that get a chance to form a minority government - it is who realistic has a chance of having the confidence of the house. IE Who's budget is more likely to get voted through. If the polls are right that would be Labour.

[ryanman]

Current 'Next Government' odds -

Labour Minority - 7/4
Con -Lib minority coalition - 3/1
Con Minority - 4/1
Con Majority - 6/1
Lab/Lib Coalition - 8/1

The bookies have a Labour minority as favourite for the reasons I've said above.

[superheavyrhun]

Having just come off a weekend where I got to bed after 6am thanks to a certain fight that took place, I'm kind of looking forward to another late night disappointment on Thursday/Friday when the election counting and results take place.

I've actually booked Friday off as a holiday from work for this reason, although I doubt I'll like the results much whatever happens. My old man did the same every election night before he retired, and will be accompanying me through the night again, while I've got a few friends who'll be doing the same.

Any of you lads go through the night during an election night?

[ryanman]

Having just come off a weekend where I got to bed after 6am thanks to a certain fight that took place, I'm kind of looking forward to another late night disappointment on Thursday/Friday when the election counting and results take place.

I've actually booked Friday off as a holiday from work for this reason, although I doubt I'll like the results much whatever happens. My old man did the same every election night before he retired, and will be accompanying me through the night again, while I've got a few friends who'll be doing the same.

Any of you lads go through the night during an election night?

You total total loser.

Yes I am doing the same and yes I also have booked Friday off.
Getting the Vodka in.

[Fenster]

@ryanman

So what is worth an interest bet for the sake of it (love a contest even if I don't give a fuck, might as well have a wager)

[ryanman]

@ryanman

So what is worth an interest bet for the sake of it (love a contest even if I don't give a fuck, might as well have a wager)

Well for what it's worth I'm staying clear as haven't seen any value.
Of the next government odds I put above I'd say Con -Lib coalition - 3/1 (yesterday) is gaining quite a bit of traction.
Thing is though you will have to wait a while for a payout as even if the two parties announce a deal after the election that doesn't mean they are the government. They'd have to get a Queen's Speech through parliament.

For on the night interest I wanted to do some over/under party seats doubles but of course they won't let you (one influences other).

Only thing I can think that might be worthwhile is the party seats groupings of which my best guesses would be -

Labour 271-280 seats 3/1
SNP 52 exact 8/1
Lib Dem 31-35 seats 5/1 (I think they should get a bit lower but worth a punt)
UKIP seats 1 3/1

Odds from PP. It's really a bit of a lottery though mate.
Although I have just convinced myself to have a go at those now.

[Master]

Having just come off a weekend where I got to bed after 6am thanks to a certain fight that took place, I'm kind of looking forward to another late night disappointment on Thursday/Friday when the election counting and results take place.

I've actually booked Friday off as a holiday from work for this reason, although I doubt I'll like the results much whatever happens. My old man did the same every election night before he retired, and will be accompanying me through the night again, while I've got a few friends who'll be doing the same.

Any of you lads go through the night during an election night?

You total total loser.

Yes I am doing the same and yes I also have booked Friday off.
Getting the Vodka in.

No way! My head is still messed up after the fight as well and no way can I stay awake for an election result.

Portillo losing his seat was the greatest moment in 1997.

[ryanman]

Having just come off a weekend where I got to bed after 6am thanks to a certain fight that took place, I'm kind of looking forward to another late night disappointment on Thursday/Friday when the election counting and results take place.

I've actually booked Friday off as a holiday from work for this reason, although I doubt I'll like the results much whatever happens. My old man did the same every election night before he retired, and will be accompanying me through the night again, while I've got a few friends who'll be doing the same.

Any of you lads go through the night during an election night?

You total total loser.

Yes I am doing the same and yes I also have booked Friday off.
Getting the Vodka in.

No way! My head is still messed up after the fight as well and no way can I stay awake for an election result.

Portillo losing his seat was the greatest moment in 1997.

I'm very very hard though remember
Alcohol helps a lot. This will be like a football match for me.