If this match had happened at LMW before Cotto fought Martinez, everybody without exception would've gone for Canelo. This fight is only 1lb above that limit.
so let's look at Cotto's "rebirth" . He beat (with hindsight) a shop worn Martinez with Knackered knees, and made a genuine MW shred to the lightest he'd been for years, and clearly looked drained. If Geale wants to take that fight , that's up to him, and none of this is Cotto's fault.
My point is that this form is not some major improvement , and taking all that into consideration , I can't see Canelo losing .