Fury ?

[Silkeyjoe]

That is not what odds mean. Learn about odds if you are going to talk about odds.

Odds are a reflection of the gambler, not what the oddsmakers think of the fight, but what they think of the money coming in on the fight.

Those odds for Tyson were made 4 months out from the fight before any money was being put down on it



Dear oh dear

Ross, listen to what Ron is saying you dopey fuckwit. Because more people over here gamble more money on Fury than do on Wlad, the bookies will lay that bet and shorten the odds accordingly. Odds are not a reflection of the chance he has.
e.g. In Vegas or wherever Tyson fought Douglas, nobody bet on Douglas , hence the odds being so long.
Over here mugs like you and half the pikeys in the UK put money on Fury thinking it gives him a better chance! The odds started low in anticipation of this.
Now run along and ask @Silkeyjoe will ya. There's a good lad! 😂😂

Just since my names getting thrown up in the argument I might aswell put some input into the betting side of things.

1. Bookies put up prices that we think reflect the fight (taking some margin out of them for our profits).
2. Bookies do react to large amounts of money coming in, but in saying that there hasnt been much money traded on this fight yet. We cut to 3/1 because I though 4/1 was too big or at best fair, so wasnt keen on laying.
3. Rather then react to money (which may be the case in vegas and why their sports betting product is shite) bookies in England and Ireland react to "smart money". This is money from customers who are profiled as smart betters and have proven track records.

I do believe Fury has a better chance of winning the fight then Povetkin did.

[ross]

That is not what odds mean. Learn about odds if you are going to talk about odds.

Odds are a reflection of the gambler, not what the oddsmakers think of the fight, but what they think of the money coming in on the fight.

Those odds for Tyson were made 4 months out from the fight before any money was being put down on it



Dear oh dear

Ross, listen to what Ron is saying you dopey fuckwit. Because more people over here gamble more money on Fury than do on Wlad, the bookies will lay that bet and shorten the odds accordingly. Odds are not a reflection of the chance he has.
e.g. In Vegas or wherever Tyson fought Douglas, nobody bet on Douglas , hence the odds being so long.
Over here mugs like you and half the pikeys in the UK put money on Fury thinking it gives him a better chance! The odds started low in anticipation of this.
Now run along and ask @Silkeyjoe will ya. There's a good lad! 😂😂

Just since my names getting thrown up in the argument I might aswell put some input into the betting side of things.

1. Bookies put up prices that we think reflect the fight (taking some margin out of them for our profits).
2. Bookies do react to large amounts of money coming in, but in saying that there hasnt been much money traded on this fight yet. We cut to 3/1 because I though 4/1 was too big or at best fair, so wasnt keen on laying.
3. Rather then react to money (which may be the case in vegas and why their sports betting product is shite) bookies in England and Ireland react to "smart money". This is money from customers who are profiled as smart betters and have proven track records.

I do believe Fury has a better chance of winning the fight then Povetkin did.

Thank you!!

Primo and Ron suck on your lollipops you little nerds

[Primo Carnera]

That is not what odds mean. Learn about odds if you are going to talk about odds.

Odds are a reflection of the gambler, not what the oddsmakers think of the fight, but what they think of the money coming in on the fight.

Those odds for Tyson were made 4 months out from the fight before any money was being put down on it



Dear oh dear

Ross, listen to what Ron is saying you dopey fuckwit. Because more people over here gamble more money on Fury than do on Wlad, the bookies will lay that bet and shorten the odds accordingly. Odds are not a reflection of the chance he has.
e.g. In Vegas or wherever Tyson fought Douglas, nobody bet on Douglas , hence the odds being so long.
Over here mugs like you and half the pikeys in the UK put money on Fury thinking it gives him a better chance! The odds started low in anticipation of this.
Now run along and ask @Silkeyjoe will ya. There's a good lad! 😂😂

Just since my names getting thrown up in the argument I might aswell put some input into the betting side of things.

1. Bookies put up prices that we think reflect the fight (taking some margin out of them for our profits).
2. Bookies do react to large amounts of money coming in, but in saying that there hasnt been much money traded on this fight yet. We cut to 3/1 because I though 4/1 was too big or at best fair, so wasnt keen on laying.
3. Rather then react to money (which may be the case in vegas and why their sports betting product is shite) bookies in England and Ireland react to "smart money". This is money from customers who are profiled as smart betters and have proven track records.

I do believe Fury has a better chance of winning the fight then Povetkin did.

Hello @Silkeyjoe , thanks for the input , much appreciated. Could you possibly answer a couple of questions please.
1. in your opinion , on fight night, do you think the odds will have changed so much that Fury will be a 2/1 shot or less ?
2. Do you think that the press conferences will have much effect on the Price if Fury is perceived to have the Mental Edge?
ps. I beg to differ regarding Povetkin, but we shall see.

[Silkeyjoe]

I would expect Fury to shorten a bit before the start due to the patriot money but in all honesty its very hard to know. There isnt much interest in the fight from a betting POV yet but you would think once sky start hyping the fight everyone will punt on it.

Comparing this to the Haye v Klit fight where Haye opened over 2/1 and went off at 5/4 where there was huge volumes of money on Haye it doesnt look like we will see nearly as much money and as such not as big a move.

In these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug money to move the line as price confidence is high so early moves tend to be from smart business as opposed to just backing the popular selection. In general the patriot money comes the week of the fight.

[Primo Carnera]

I would expect Fury to shorten a bit before the start due to the patriot money but in all honesty its very hard to know. There isnt much interest in the fight from a betting POV yet but you would think once sky start hyping the fight everyone will punt on it.

Comparing this to the Haye v Klit fight where Haye opened over 2/1 and went off at 5/4 where there was huge volumes of money on Haye it doesnt look like we will see nearly as much money and as such not as big a move.

In these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug money to move the line as price confidence is high so early moves tend to be from smart business as opposed to just backing the popular selection. In general the patriot money comes the week of the fight.

Silks, thanks for the info , I appreciate it, and I can see you're being very diplomatic and don't want to get involved in this childish disagreement between Ross and Me.
some things I noted from your reply , are that:
1. there isn't interest betting wise, probably because the "smart money" wouldn't waste their dough on Fury.
2. the Haye price went down because there was a lot of activity from the "Smart Money" leading up to the fight , presumably because clever people thought that Haye had a better chance than Fury does. and you don't reckon you'll see anywhere near that sort of money on this fight because of the reasons above.
3. when you mention "Mug Money" , not wishing to put words into your mouth , and you don't have to answer , I'm assuming you mean people like Ross, who would lump on thinking the price is going to drop just because Fury stares down Wlad?
Thoughts Ross?

[ross]

I would expect Fury to shorten a bit before the start due to the patriot money but in all honesty its very hard to know. There isnt much interest in the fight from a betting POV yet but you would think once sky start hyping the fight everyone will punt on it.

Comparing this to the Haye v Klit fight where Haye opened over 2/1 and went off at 5/4 where there was huge volumes of money on Haye it doesnt look like we will see nearly as much money and as such not as big a move.

In these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug money to move the line as price confidence is high so early moves tend to be from smart business as opposed to just backing the popular selection. In general the patriot money comes the week of the fight.

Silks, thanks for the info , I appreciate it, and I can see you're being very diplomatic and don't want to get involved in this childish disagreement between Ross and Me.
some things I noted from your reply , are that:
1. there isn't interest betting wise, probably because the "smart money" wouldn't waste their dough on Fury.
2. the Haye price went down because there was a lot of activity from the "Smart Money" leading up to the fight , presumably because clever people thought that Haye had a better chance than Fury does. and you don't reckon you'll see anywhere near that sort of money on this fight because of the reasons above.
3. when you mention "Mug Money" , not wishing to put words into your mouth , and you don't have to answer , I'm assuming you mean people like Ross, who would lump on thinking the price is going to drop just because Fury stares down Wlad?
Thoughts Ross?

My thoughts are as everyone can see you tried to prove me wrong and failed you mug

You and that bigger thick mug Ron Swanson. Pair of twats. How does it feel to be proven wrong by me?

People like Silkyjoe who are paid to make the odds know that Tyson has a much better chance of beating Wlad than Povetkin did. You disagree because you know fuck all and would never get a job as an odds maker!

You have now found out that yes, the bookies actually give Tyson the best chance of beating Wlad since Haye. Ross wins there... And that also, Ross is right that the odds will shorten once Sky actually start the media hype which hasnt happened yet. Wait till this time tomorrow after the London press conference

Wait till Tyson wins. What shite will you be typing then

[Primo Carnera]

I would expect Fury to shorten a bit before the start due to the patriot money but in all honesty its very hard to know. There isnt much interest in the fight from a betting POV yet but you would think once sky start hyping the fight everyone will punt on it.

Comparing this to the Haye v Klit fight where Haye opened over 2/1 and went off at 5/4 where there was huge volumes of money on Haye it doesnt look like we will see nearly as much money and as such not as big a move.

In these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug money to move the line as price confidence is high so early moves tend to be from smart business as opposed to just backing the popular selection. In general the patriot money comes the week of the fight.

Silks, thanks for the info , I appreciate it, and I can see you're being very diplomatic and don't want to get involved in this childish disagreement between Ross and Me.
some things I noted from your reply , are that:
1. there isn't interest betting wise, probably because the "smart money" wouldn't waste their dough on Fury.
2. the Haye price went down because there was a lot of activity from the "Smart Money" leading up to the fight , presumably because clever people thought that Haye had a better chance than Fury does. and you don't reckon you'll see anywhere near that sort of money on this fight because of the reasons above.
3. when you mention "Mug Money" , not wishing to put words into your mouth , and you don't have to answer , I'm assuming you mean people like Ross, who would lump on thinking the price is going to drop just because Fury stares down Wlad?
Thoughts Ross?

My thoughts are as everyone can see you tried to prove me wrong and failed you mug

You and that bigger thick mug Ron Swanson. Pair of twats. How does it feel to be proven wrong by me?

People like Silkyjoe who are paid to make the odds know that Tyson has a much better chance of beating Wlad than Povetkin did. You disagree because you know fuck all and would never get a job as an odds maker!

You have now found out that yes, the bookies actually give Tyson the best chance of beating Wlad since Haye. Ross wins there... And that also, Ross is right that the odds will shorten once Sky actually start the media hype which hasnt happened yet. Wait till this time tomorrow after the London press conference

Wait till Tyson wins. What shite will you be typing then

Fair Play Ross , you are such a fucking sap! ha.
1. you've proven nothing , as per usual, your argument is based on Conjecture!
2. I respect Silkeyjoe's views on odds making, however whether Fury has a better chance than Povetkin is a matter of opinion , again Conjecture!
3. by your warped line of thinking, Fury has the best chance since Haye of beating Wlad, BUT because Haye's odds were lower, a.) not as good a chance, meaning Haye is better than Fury, and b.) he hasn't got as good a chance as Haye, and Haye Lost anyway.
So "Ross wins there." what does Ross ACTUALLY win? answer , Absolutely fuck all , you fool.
So after tomorrow's press conference , the price will drop will it?
didn't you read Silkeyjoe say there hasn't been much interest betting wise on this fight? why ? because nobody thinks Fury will win.
and didn't you read when Silkeyjoe said "in these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug (Ross) money to move the line as price confidence is high" now, as there hasn't been that much interest betting wise , how is there going to be "Huge Volumes of Money" put on ?
so stop picking out little crumbs of comfort to try and justify your futile argument and start coming up with some facts. or are you going to do what you normally do and when you can't answer something , ignore it and hijack another thread and spout off the same old conjecture based horse shit!
just in case you don't know what Conjecture means , I found this in the Oxford English Dictionary:
Conjecture - Something with no facts, proof or substance that saps like Ross use to try to prove their point because they think people are fucking stupid enough to fall for it!!! ;

[ross]

I would expect Fury to shorten a bit before the start due to the patriot money but in all honesty its very hard to know. There isnt much interest in the fight from a betting POV yet but you would think once sky start hyping the fight everyone will punt on it.

Comparing this to the Haye v Klit fight where Haye opened over 2/1 and went off at 5/4 where there was huge volumes of money on Haye it doesnt look like we will see nearly as much money and as such not as big a move.

In these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug money to move the line as price confidence is high so early moves tend to be from smart business as opposed to just backing the popular selection. In general the patriot money comes the week of the fight.

Silks, thanks for the info , I appreciate it, and I can see you're being very diplomatic and don't want to get involved in this childish disagreement between Ross and Me.
some things I noted from your reply , are that:
1. there isn't interest betting wise, probably because the "smart money" wouldn't waste their dough on Fury.
2. the Haye price went down because there was a lot of activity from the "Smart Money" leading up to the fight , presumably because clever people thought that Haye had a better chance than Fury does. and you don't reckon you'll see anywhere near that sort of money on this fight because of the reasons above.
3. when you mention "Mug Money" , not wishing to put words into your mouth , and you don't have to answer , I'm assuming you mean people like Ross, who would lump on thinking the price is going to drop just because Fury stares down Wlad?
Thoughts Ross?

My thoughts are as everyone can see you tried to prove me wrong and failed you mug

You and that bigger thick mug Ron Swanson. Pair of twats. How does it feel to be proven wrong by me?

People like Silkyjoe who are paid to make the odds know that Tyson has a much better chance of beating Wlad than Povetkin did. You disagree because you know fuck all and would never get a job as an odds maker!

You have now found out that yes, the bookies actually give Tyson the best chance of beating Wlad since Haye. Ross wins there... And that also, Ross is right that the odds will shorten once Sky actually start the media hype which hasnt happened yet. Wait till this time tomorrow after the London press conference

Wait till Tyson wins. What shite will you be typing then

Fair Play Ross , you are such a fucking sap! ha.
1. you've proven nothing , as per usual, your argument is based on Conjecture!
2. I respect Silkeyjoe's views on odds making, however whether Fury has a better chance than Povetkin is a matter of opinion , again Conjecture!
3. by your warped line of thinking, Fury has the best chance since Haye of beating Wlad, BUT because Haye's odds were lower, a.) not as good a chance, meaning Haye is better than Fury, and b.) he hasn't got as good a chance as Haye, and Haye Lost anyway.
So "Ross wins there." what does Ross ACTUALLY win? answer , Absolutely fuck all , you fool.
So after tomorrow's press conference , the price will drop will it?
didn't you read Silkeyjoe say there hasn't been much interest betting wise on this fight? why ? because nobody thinks Fury will win.
and didn't you read when Silkeyjoe said "in these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug (Ross) money to move the line as price confidence is high" now, as there hasn't been that much interest betting wise , how is there going to be "Huge Volumes of Money" put on ?
so stop picking out little crumbs of comfort to try and justify your futile argument and start coming up with some facts. or are you going to do what you normally do and when you can't answer something , ignore it and hijack another thread and spout off the same old conjecture based horse shit!
just in case you don't know what Conjecture means , I found this in the Oxford English Dictionary:
Conjecture - Something with no facts, proof or substance that saps like Ross use to try to prove their point because they think people are fucking stupid enough to fall for it!!! ;

You seem quite demented.

My point whch everyone else can see including silkyjoe and fenster is that the people who matter when it comes to having to have an idea on who has the best chance of winning because mo ey is on the line say that Tyson has a better chance of winning than Povetkin did. You dont like this because it means your way of thinking isnt in line with those who male their living out of it, therefore the experts. Its only a prediction, a forecast an educated guess don't cry. Maybe one day you can have an educated guess but I doubt it will be on boxing. Yes a matter of opinion but odds makers opinions count, yours don't and are wrong, which is one reason why they dont count

There hasnt been much betting on the fight because there hasnt been mch media hype yet, its still a massive 6 weeks away!! Once the hype really starts like tomorrow silkyjoe will notice bets starting to come in and in the next week or so I would say the odds will start changing.

Dont get pissy you make yourself sound like a little cock. Just rambling on all over the place and sulkng because im right.

[Silkeyjoe]

I would expect Fury to shorten a bit before the start due to the patriot money but in all honesty its very hard to know. There isnt much interest in the fight from a betting POV yet but you would think once sky start hyping the fight everyone will punt on it.

Comparing this to the Haye v Klit fight where Haye opened over 2/1 and went off at 5/4 where there was huge volumes of money on Haye it doesnt look like we will see nearly as much money and as such not as big a move.

In these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug money to move the line as price confidence is high so early moves tend to be from smart business as opposed to just backing the popular selection. In general the patriot money comes the week of the fight.

Silks, thanks for the info , I appreciate it, and I can see you're being very diplomatic and don't want to get involved in this childish disagreement between Ross and Me.
some things I noted from your reply , are that:
1. there isn't interest betting wise, probably because the "smart money" wouldn't waste their dough on Fury.
2. the Haye price went down because there was a lot of activity from the "Smart Money" leading up to the fight , presumably because clever people thought that Haye had a better chance than Fury does. and you don't reckon you'll see anywhere near that sort of money on this fight because of the reasons above.
3. when you mention "Mug Money" , not wishing to put words into your mouth , and you don't have to answer , I'm assuming you mean people like Ross, who would lump on thinking the price is going to drop just because Fury stares down Wlad?
Thoughts Ross?

1. Correct
2. Incorrect - the odds moved the week of the fight because of the huge patriotic support for Haye. All the smart money was on Wlad in that fight. Haye was a loser for well over a mil which drove his price in.
3. Mug money is money from a punter who arent "price sensitive". The majority of people dont make money because they are not price sensitive. Take guys on this site. There are plenty who know much more about boxing then me, but Id be pretty certain Id make money off them backing the odds I set or if they were to set odds Id be pretty sure Id make money off them. Everything has a correct price and if you consistently back odds that are better then the true chance of it happening then you will make money.

Eg you think Fury has no chance, but surely if you could get odds of 1000/1 you would back him? Similarly you think Wlad is definitely going to win but if the odds were 1/100 I doubt you would back it.

[ross]

I would expect Fury to shorten a bit before the start due to the patriot money but in all honesty its very hard to know. There isnt much interest in the fight from a betting POV yet but you would think once sky start hyping the fight everyone will punt on it.

Comparing this to the Haye v Klit fight where Haye opened over 2/1 and went off at 5/4 where there was huge volumes of money on Haye it doesnt look like we will see nearly as much money and as such not as big a move.

In these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug money to move the line as price confidence is high so early moves tend to be from smart business as opposed to just backing the popular selection. In general the patriot money comes the week of the fight.

Silks, thanks for the info , I appreciate it, and I can see you're being very diplomatic and don't want to get involved in this childish disagreement between Ross and Me.
some things I noted from your reply , are that:
1. there isn't interest betting wise, probably because the "smart money" wouldn't waste their dough on Fury.
2. the Haye price went down because there was a lot of activity from the "Smart Money" leading up to the fight , presumably because clever people thought that Haye had a better chance than Fury does. and you don't reckon you'll see anywhere near that sort of money on this fight because of the reasons above.
3. when you mention "Mug Money" , not wishing to put words into your mouth , and you don't have to answer , I'm assuming you mean people like Ross, who would lump on thinking the price is going to drop just because Fury stares down Wlad?
Thoughts Ross?

1. Correct
2. Incorrect - the odds moved the week of the fight because of the huge patriotic support for Haye. All the smart money was on Wlad in that fight. Haye was a loser for well over a mil which drove his price in.
3. Mug money is money from a punter who arent "price sensitive". The majority of people dont make money because they are not price sensitive. Take guys on this site. There are plenty who know much more about boxing then me, but Id be pretty certain Id make money off them backing the odds I set or if they were to set odds Id be pretty sure Id make money off them. Everything has a correct price and if you consistently back odds that are better then the true chance of it happening then you will make money.

Eg you think Fury has no chance, but surely if you could get odds of 1000/1 you would back him? Similarly you think Wlad is definitely going to win but if the odds were 1/100 I doubt you would back it.

Mate its like educating pork in here

[Master]

Betting is a mugs game.

[Primo Carnera]

I would expect Fury to shorten a bit before the start due to the patriot money but in all honesty its very hard to know. There isnt much interest in the fight from a betting POV yet but you would think once sky start hyping the fight everyone will punt on it.

Comparing this to the Haye v Klit fight where Haye opened over 2/1 and went off at 5/4 where there was huge volumes of money on Haye it doesnt look like we will see nearly as much money and as such not as big a move.

In these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug money to move the line as price confidence is high so early moves tend to be from smart business as opposed to just backing the popular selection. In general the patriot money comes the week of the fight.

Silks, thanks for the info , I appreciate it, and I can see you're being very diplomatic and don't want to get involved in this childish disagreement between Ross and Me.
some things I noted from your reply , are that:
1. there isn't interest betting wise, probably because the "smart money" wouldn't waste their dough on Fury.
2. the Haye price went down because there was a lot of activity from the "Smart Money" leading up to the fight , presumably because clever people thought that Haye had a better chance than Fury does. and you don't reckon you'll see anywhere near that sort of money on this fight because of the reasons above.
3. when you mention "Mug Money" , not wishing to put words into your mouth , and you don't have to answer , I'm assuming you mean people like Ross, who would lump on thinking the price is going to drop just because Fury stares down Wlad?
Thoughts Ross?

1. Correct
thank you Silkeyjoe , ROSS, PLEASE NOTE!
2. Incorrect - the odds moved the week of the fight because of the huge patriotic support for Haye. All the smart money was on Wlad in that fight. Haye was a loser for well over a mil which drove his price in.
I accept that , but it has to be said that there was more activity with Haye than there will be with Fury, so the lack of jingoistic betting means the price won't drop drastically in your opinion, no? Again ROSS, TAKE NOTE!
3. Mug money is money from a punter who arent "price sensitive". The majority of people dont make money because they are not price sensitive. Take guys on this site. There are plenty who know much more about boxing then me, but Id be pretty certain Id make money off them backing the odds I set or if they were to set odds Id be pretty sure Id make money off them. Everything has a correct price and if you consistently back odds that are better then the true chance of it happening then you will make money.
again , I take your point, everything has a correct price , just like a corner shop really.but aren't mug punters also punters that bet with their hearts rather than their heads and go on blinded opinions ignoring all the evidence and facts to the contrary? ROSS, TAKE NOTE!

Eg you think Fury has no chance, but surely if you could get odds of 1000/1 you would back him? Similarly you think Wlad is definitely going to win but if the odds were 1/100 I doubt you would back it.

that is a fair point and it is all about perceived value. However , you did exaggerate the point. For example, I can't talk for anyone else, but if Fury was 10/1,or even maybe 16/1, I personally still wouldn't bet on him because I don't think he will win. Whereas, for the normal man in the street anybody odds on more than 1/3 or 1/4 in a two horse race really isn't worth backing. Btw, you never answered about whether you reckon Fury will be 2/1 or less if he outstares Wlad like Ross reckons? I'm really sorry to put you in the middle of this petty squabble.
ROSS, TAKE NOTE!