Fury ?

[Silkeyjoe]

I would expect Fury to shorten a bit before the start due to the patriot money but in all honesty its very hard to know. There isnt much interest in the fight from a betting POV yet but you would think once sky start hyping the fight everyone will punt on it.

Comparing this to the Haye v Klit fight where Haye opened over 2/1 and went off at 5/4 where there was huge volumes of money on Haye it doesnt look like we will see nearly as much money and as such not as big a move.

In these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug money to move the line as price confidence is high so early moves tend to be from smart business as opposed to just backing the popular selection. In general the patriot money comes the week of the fight.

Silks, thanks for the info , I appreciate it, and I can see you're being very diplomatic and don't want to get involved in this childish disagreement between Ross and Me.
some things I noted from your reply , are that:
1. there isn't interest betting wise, probably because the "smart money" wouldn't waste their dough on Fury.
2. the Haye price went down because there was a lot of activity from the "Smart Money" leading up to the fight , presumably because clever people thought that Haye had a better chance than Fury does. and you don't reckon you'll see anywhere near that sort of money on this fight because of the reasons above.
3. when you mention "Mug Money" , not wishing to put words into your mouth , and you don't have to answer , I'm assuming you mean people like Ross, who would lump on thinking the price is going to drop just because Fury stares down Wlad?
Thoughts Ross?

1. Correct
2. Incorrect - the odds moved the week of the fight because of the huge patriotic support for Haye. All the smart money was on Wlad in that fight. Haye was a loser for well over a mil which drove his price in.
3. Mug money is money from a punter who arent "price sensitive". The majority of people dont make money because they are not price sensitive. Take guys on this site. There are plenty who know much more about boxing then me, but Id be pretty certain Id make money off them backing the odds I set or if they were to set odds Id be pretty sure Id make money off them. Everything has a correct price and if you consistently back odds that are better then the true chance of it happening then you will make money.

Eg you think Fury has no chance, but surely if you could get odds of 1000/1 you would back him? Similarly you think Wlad is definitely going to win but if the odds were 1/100 I doubt you would back it.

[ross]

I would expect Fury to shorten a bit before the start due to the patriot money but in all honesty its very hard to know. There isnt much interest in the fight from a betting POV yet but you would think once sky start hyping the fight everyone will punt on it.

Comparing this to the Haye v Klit fight where Haye opened over 2/1 and went off at 5/4 where there was huge volumes of money on Haye it doesnt look like we will see nearly as much money and as such not as big a move.

In these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug money to move the line as price confidence is high so early moves tend to be from smart business as opposed to just backing the popular selection. In general the patriot money comes the week of the fight.

Silks, thanks for the info , I appreciate it, and I can see you're being very diplomatic and don't want to get involved in this childish disagreement between Ross and Me.
some things I noted from your reply , are that:
1. there isn't interest betting wise, probably because the "smart money" wouldn't waste their dough on Fury.
2. the Haye price went down because there was a lot of activity from the "Smart Money" leading up to the fight , presumably because clever people thought that Haye had a better chance than Fury does. and you don't reckon you'll see anywhere near that sort of money on this fight because of the reasons above.
3. when you mention "Mug Money" , not wishing to put words into your mouth , and you don't have to answer , I'm assuming you mean people like Ross, who would lump on thinking the price is going to drop just because Fury stares down Wlad?
Thoughts Ross?

1. Correct
2. Incorrect - the odds moved the week of the fight because of the huge patriotic support for Haye. All the smart money was on Wlad in that fight. Haye was a loser for well over a mil which drove his price in.
3. Mug money is money from a punter who arent "price sensitive". The majority of people dont make money because they are not price sensitive. Take guys on this site. There are plenty who know much more about boxing then me, but Id be pretty certain Id make money off them backing the odds I set or if they were to set odds Id be pretty sure Id make money off them. Everything has a correct price and if you consistently back odds that are better then the true chance of it happening then you will make money.

Eg you think Fury has no chance, but surely if you could get odds of 1000/1 you would back him? Similarly you think Wlad is definitely going to win but if the odds were 1/100 I doubt you would back it.

Mate its like educating pork in here

[Master]

Betting is a mugs game.

[Fenster]

Betting is a mugs game.

And also a game for geniuses.

Barney Curley.

[Silkeyjoe]

Betting is a mugs game.

And also a game for geniuses.

Barney Curley.

Believe me it doesnt take a genius to make money off the bookies. Keeping accounts open and winning is the hard part

[Primo Carnera]

I would expect Fury to shorten a bit before the start due to the patriot money but in all honesty its very hard to know. There isnt much interest in the fight from a betting POV yet but you would think once sky start hyping the fight everyone will punt on it.

Comparing this to the Haye v Klit fight where Haye opened over 2/1 and went off at 5/4 where there was huge volumes of money on Haye it doesnt look like we will see nearly as much money and as such not as big a move.

In these big fights it takes huge volumes of mug money to move the line as price confidence is high so early moves tend to be from smart business as opposed to just backing the popular selection. In general the patriot money comes the week of the fight.

Silks, thanks for the info , I appreciate it, and I can see you're being very diplomatic and don't want to get involved in this childish disagreement between Ross and Me.
some things I noted from your reply , are that:
1. there isn't interest betting wise, probably because the "smart money" wouldn't waste their dough on Fury.
2. the Haye price went down because there was a lot of activity from the "Smart Money" leading up to the fight , presumably because clever people thought that Haye had a better chance than Fury does. and you don't reckon you'll see anywhere near that sort of money on this fight because of the reasons above.
3. when you mention "Mug Money" , not wishing to put words into your mouth , and you don't have to answer , I'm assuming you mean people like Ross, who would lump on thinking the price is going to drop just because Fury stares down Wlad?
Thoughts Ross?

1. Correct
thank you Silkeyjoe , ROSS, PLEASE NOTE!
2. Incorrect - the odds moved the week of the fight because of the huge patriotic support for Haye. All the smart money was on Wlad in that fight. Haye was a loser for well over a mil which drove his price in.
I accept that , but it has to be said that there was more activity with Haye than there will be with Fury, so the lack of jingoistic betting means the price won't drop drastically in your opinion, no? Again ROSS, TAKE NOTE!
3. Mug money is money from a punter who arent "price sensitive". The majority of people dont make money because they are not price sensitive. Take guys on this site. There are plenty who know much more about boxing then me, but Id be pretty certain Id make money off them backing the odds I set or if they were to set odds Id be pretty sure Id make money off them. Everything has a correct price and if you consistently back odds that are better then the true chance of it happening then you will make money.
again , I take your point, everything has a correct price , just like a corner shop really.but aren't mug punters also punters that bet with their hearts rather than their heads and go on blinded opinions ignoring all the evidence and facts to the contrary? ROSS, TAKE NOTE!

Eg you think Fury has no chance, but surely if you could get odds of 1000/1 you would back him? Similarly you think Wlad is definitely going to win but if the odds were 1/100 I doubt you would back it.

that is a fair point and it is all about perceived value. However , you did exaggerate the point. For example, I can't talk for anyone else, but if Fury was 10/1,or even maybe 16/1, I personally still wouldn't bet on him because I don't think he will win. Whereas, for the normal man in the street anybody odds on more than 1/3 or 1/4 in a two horse race really isn't worth backing. Btw, you never answered about whether you reckon Fury will be 2/1 or less if he outstares Wlad like Ross reckons? I'm really sorry to put you in the middle of this petty squabble.
ROSS, TAKE NOTE!