What a horrible couple of workdays since the referendum. I was at a wedding in France over the weekend. British hedge funder marrying a French banker. The Brits all furious at Boris and the French shitting themselves that Le Pen gets a boost from promising a French referendum, wins the presidency and then gets a French exit. Not shitting themselves but worried.
Loads of smartarses all trying to show how connected they were by telling everybody what the government is going to do and to be fair lots of them are connected people. But everybody had a different read. There's going to be another referendum. There definitely isn't going to be another referendum. Article 50 won't get triggered. Yes it will. And so on. Bottom line is nobody knows. You could see by Boris and Gove's faces on Friday morning they don't have a clue what they're doing either. They obviously didn't expect to win. They weren't exactly celebrating were they.
It's going to be interesting to see how the economy does over the next few months until we get round to invoking article fifty. There's a good chance that a lot of firms who would love to move somewhere like Romania to take advantage of the cheap labour might fuck off. Parts of the City might fuck off too and much as people don't like us we chip in billions of tax revenues. There might be a lot of people who voted leave who wish they'd voted the other way in a few months. In which case, with ongoing damage to the economy and Scotland potentially fucking off maybe parliament just disregards the referendum result and we stay in. I'd put the chance of this at about 20-30%.
And it might get higher of it becomes clear that freedom of movement for EU citizens isn't going to change even if we do leave. If we want to keep access to the European single market we're going to have to keep freedom of movement. If Boris and his chums start admitting in public that we may have to keep freedom of movement before we've invoked article fifty it'll be a good tell that we're not going to.
Pound is taking a bit of a hammering and stock markets everywhere are down. The euro and eurozone stocks will eventually get a pounding too, it's not just going to be us. There's going to be a lot of effort made by the EU to make us either reverse or ignore our referendum vote. Like I said before, nobody here apart from part of the Conservative party wants us to leave and nobody in the EU want us to leave. And even if we do we'll still be paying into the EU budget and letting EU peeps come here and work.
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