One judge gave Alvarez every round last time. Vegas judges get their paydays from the State Athletic Commission who pick judges they know will judge fights the way they want them judged. So really this is up to Vegas and the various powerbrokers who decide these things. What they want is Alvarez headlining May/September events for years to come because there's literally nobody else around on the horizon who could do the job. Maybe they think Alvarez could actually be burnished by a loss and then a win in the trilogy fight and can then go on to sell more big events. Maybe they think Golovkin is on the slide and Alvarez will make the third fight competitive enough that they can give him the win.
Or maybe they just think fuck it, if Alvarez is on his feet at the end of the twelfth he gets the decision. It's all down to a bunch of cold calculations about money and future revenue streams, nothing to do with who is the better fighter.
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