The Brexit Thread

[Kirkland Laing]

Nothing is stopping Britain doing anything. Britain can walk away from the EU tomorrow just by sending a letter. But then they're out of the customs union and the economy falls off a cliff. Britain is getting a divorce from the EU and the other party in this divorce, the EU countries, have a say in this too. If you got a divorce and decided you'd keep the house and assets and would transfer all the joint debt into your wife's name you would not be able to do this. Because there are contract laws and you signed a contract with your wife. Same thing here. Britainhas to negotiate a mutually acceptable resolution with the union it's breaking away from. Even the fucking idiots running the country realise they can't just walk away.

Yeah not like I'd be one to be aware of the perils of secession from a union Kirk. The main question I have is if the union is voluntary or compulsory...joining certainly seemed voluntary, but leaving....leaving seems a bit more involved now doesn't it?

At the end of the day if Germany wants to make a deal Britain will get a deal, if Germany doesn't want to make a deal then there will be no deal. It is the power of that nation in the EU which is why I mentioned Britain being under Germany's boot.....yes, indeed you are and it's not an enviable predicament in which you find yourselves.



And the more Establishment Tories (not sure what else I'd call them) were quite full of themselves and their hubris allowed for Brexit to win at the polls. Had the choice been Remain vs Brexit with a deal vs Brexit deal or not then the vote would have been split and only the mere illusion of choice given to the people. Ironically if the people press for a deal then you're sadly back at that "illusion of a choice" as Germany will offer no deal that anyone will want to accept....that boot there, that's the one you're all under and the entire nation has my empathy as I am absolutely CERTAIN the longer this drags out the more like a redheaded stepchild Britain will be treated by the EU. Politicians are quite vindictive....after a while a no deal Brexit might look like a relief, I certainly hope it doesn't come to that.

Britain is not starting a war here Lyle, it's nothing like the treasonous actions of the confederate states. What they are doing is attempting to untangle half a century of trade, employment, contractual and various other types of laws and regulations, financial services and banking regulations, criminal/policing arrangements, recirocal arrangements for healthcare and benefits for British citizens living in the EU and vice versa and a whole bunch of other stuff.

Britain isn't negotiating with Germany, they're negotiating with the EU. Like I already explained the main point of contention so far has been Irish demands over the all-Ireland economy. The EU has supported Ireland in this. By pooling their sovereignty with twenty six other countries, by "giving up control", Ireland has emerged with total victory in a dispute with Britain for the first time in history. Once agin Lyle your claim is about divorce proceedings, you still haven't produced any evidence to show that Britain was somehow under Germany's boot when they were in the EU. We kept our own currency, our financial services industry dominated Europe leaving Frankfurt with crumbs and our commissioner ran the financial sercies laws to keep it that way. This will change dramatically when we leave. Now we'll see Frankfurt and Paris go after our financial services, ten percent of our economy.

Whether Britain leaves on WTO terms or with eventual agreement on these issues these issues still need to be resolved. It would be much easier to do this than to leave on WTO terms. Presently only Serbia, Algeria and North Korea trade with the rest of the world on WTO terms. Every other nation has a varying amount of recirocal, bilateral, trilateral, multilateral agreemtns with other countries. Unless you're a cesspit of corruption or a totalitarian state then you have no option but to trade a little sovereignty for access to foreign markets and mutually beneficial deals with other countries.

Britain is the world's fifth largest economy and has an incredibly complex array of laws and treaties with other nations which have all been subsumed by EU membership, something that has been tremendously beneficial for Britain -- just see how well negotiations go with one country lined up against twenty seven or when Britain tries to make trade agreements elsewhere. As an example a starting point for a trade agreement with Turkey would be free movement of ninety million Turks into Britain.

Walking away from every single agreement that Britain has made in the modern era, which is what would happen if they leave on WTO terms , would be absolutely catastrophic for the British economy. As it is they'll spend up to a decade trying to untangle from the EU and any resultant deal will make the country far worse off economically than staying in would have. Just wait and see what a world historic clusterfuck this turns into.