The only statistic we can make is on closed cases, we can only make estimations for the active cases. The right formula for MR would be the number of death from the close cases + the number of patients who will die from the active cases, all this divided by total persons infected. If you divide only the deaths from the closed cases to the total existed cases is like you predict that all patients from the active cases will recover.


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To be fair death is the number one case closer, of that we can agree. The mortality rate in the UK using those number is around 5%.
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