I think it comes all down to Pavlik's jab. If his jab is on, Winky will always be slightly out of range. If Winky can get inside, he will get bullied around but get in some some good stuff himself.

Can Winky win? Possibly if he can frustrate Pavlik enough, but his chin will get tested by Pavlik regardless.

Pavlik has proved he has underrated boxing skills. He has the fundamentals down. Even though he can look sloppy with them, they work.

I expect a 12 round decision. Winky is too smart to get Ko'd. If he gets hurt, he will survive. Pavlik by 12 round decision as he is simply the fresher fighter at this stage.