Analysis: Pacquiao - Margarito

[El Kabong]

I think the major points that this fight hinges on are:
1. Margarito not fighting in a manner where he makes use of his height and reach

2. Is Pacquiao's defense good enough to withstand a continued onslaught of 100+ punches a round?

3. Is Margarito psychologically damaged by not having the loaded wraps? He hasn't competed at a high level since he got busted and vs Mosley he seemed unwilling or unable to fight like he fought vs Cotto.

I think Margarito is tough but when it gets down to brass tacks he's not incredibly skilled as a boxer and having a broken psyche I think he's ripe for the picking. Without punching power and the confidence of knowing he has a real tangible advantage I think Tony is a journeyman fighter at BEST. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I think having loaded wraps not only gives you more power but it also increases your ability to take punches just by the feeling "However hard this guy hits me I can hit him harder"

[milmascaras1]

you know, by most people's account here, margarito doesn't have a chance. but too bad boxing is not fought on paper. if that were true then why even have the fight? i think most of you are seriously underestimating margarito. who knows, he might even pull out a surprise and absolutely shock the world!

[killersheep]

you know, by most people's account here, margarito doesn't have a chance. but too bad boxing is not fought on paper. if that were true then why even have the fight? i think most of you are seriously underestimating margarito. who knows, he might even pull out a surprise and absolutely shock the world!

I concede that it is absolutely possible Margarito wins this, but it would definitely be considered an upset.

[Jimanuel Boogustus]

Good points Lyle, I actually want to try to ignore (for the time being) the psychological ramifications of not having loaded gloves but yeah it will be very interesting to see how much Tony is willing to go through to get at Manny. But Mosley also had to get pretty physical and take some shit to get at Tony... It would be interesting to see what Manny has to go through to get off in succession.

I know Manny has great, explosive footwork but I have a suspicion that his footwork will have to be amplified because his feet are the real things that makes all the difference in the fight... Yes he has fast hands but he absolutely needs to be in and out, in and out... Upsetting Tony's constant advances.
Mosley had the whiskers to get away with keeping much more stationary but IF Tony is on full steam Manny really will have to figit around a hell of a lot.

So if this is the case, I'd be interested to see his footwork stray towards the negative bias of 'evasive action' neglecting the art of making angles and thus being stuck in a reverse gear. If this is the case then wow, what a spectacle it will be.

If Tony's content to plod and NOT be a mean mother fucker then he will probably get stopped late.

[GAME]

I think the major points that this fight hinges on are:

2. Is Pacquiao's defense good enough to withstand a continued onslaught of 100+ punches a round?

"

I saw some stats on Boxing scene today on Marg against southpaws. It wasnt impressive and significantly lower than against orthodox fighters. Paul Williamsis not particularly hard to hit and neither is he a backfoot boxer so I doubt Marg has suddenly found the key to left handers

[Taeth]

I don't know why all these people are talking about Manny should get inside on Magarito, and that Margarito should try to use his height and reach.

Margarito likes to back you up, get in close and launch a million punches from a million different angles. Pacquiao likes to keep you at range, even when you are on the ropes and throw a million punches from a million different angles, while maintaining his movement. On the inside Pacquiao covers up until he discovers an avenue of escape, Margarito throws blindly on the outside until he gets inside and actually throws brilliant combinations in close. Mosley held Margarito everytime they got on the inside and he beat Antonion on the outside because that's how you are going to beat the big buy. Manny never clinches, so it should be interesting watching him try to maintain that in and out style against the constant pressure and body attack of Margarito. The only advantage Margarito's height and reach will have in this is that it will make Manny's job more difficult when it comes to combinations, and jumping in and out. Manny basically didn't throw combinations against Oscar until he had broken Oscar's will.

[El Kabong]

I don't know why all these people are talking about Manny should get inside on Magarito, and that Margarito should try to use his height and reach.

Well if he was going to fight that way he would have been doing it by now. Margarito fights in a style where he's slouched over with his head in a PERFECT position to eat uppercuts all day long which is why I see Manny landing hard, backing out, allowing Tony to come back at him and then right before Tony pulls the trigger BANG left uppercut and all of a sudden Tony has a Rock'em Sock'em Robot head.

Margarito is like a cat he wants to pounce on you get you where you can't move and throw a ton of punches, he also wants to square you up to litterally fight toe to toe and that may have been fine and dandy when you're forcing a fight on someone with less skill or when you're loading your wraps, but when you're fighting someone quicker, more accurate, and someone who fights smart you're going to be in big trouble.

Margarito is a poor man's Ricky Hatton when it comes to his style of fighting. Tony's hands aren't that fast, he doesn't put combinations together all that great he just throws punches and lots of them.

[pacfan]

If pac fights just like he fought Oscar (basically hit-and-run and softening-up strategy, and going for the kill when ready), he should have no problem. But I think he should be more cautious against Margo's power shots...

[milmascaras1]

margarito needs to get after pacquiao from the beginning of the first round otherwise the fight is going to get away from him quick. if he smartly cuts off the ring, attacks the body, uses a good jab and throws a variety of punches, he's got a shot. but if he starts off slow like he usually does, it'll be too late and he might even get stopped late. one things for sure, pacquiao is there to be hit. marquez and clottey proved that.

[generalbulldog]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this yet. Jeff Mayweather Expects Weight-Drained Margarito To Fall - Boxing News

Margarito will be weight drain. Jeff Mayweather and other people have speculated on this ever since Margarito last week look pretty much shredded at 154 and people were wondering how can he make 150 without any negative lingering effects. In fact at today's weigh in he looks really gaunt and not really strong.

[Taeth]

I think the major points that this fight hinges on are:

2. Is Pacquiao's defense good enough to withstand a continued onslaught of 100+ punches a round?

"

I saw some stats on Boxing scene today on Marg against southpaws. It wasnt impressive and significantly lower than against orthodox fighters. Paul Williamsis not particularly hard to hit and neither is he a backfoot boxer so I doubt Marg has suddenly found the key to left handers

Look how Williams fought Margarito though, he wasn't stalking in like he did against Martinez and Quintana, he kept the fight as outside as he could, and Margarito was lost in there because he was so much slower, and in this case shorter than Paul. Santos was also around his natural size.

Margarito has had more advantages when he is naturally the bigger buy, and the opponent can't physically stand up to him than anything else. I think it was more about how well Williams and Santos fought than what foot was placed forward. The way Margarito throws punches and moves it shouldn't matter what stance his opponent uses. This isn't the same issue as when Hatton stylisically had big difficulties with the right hook from southpaws.