Let's be realistic - what are the odds that Haye pulls off an upset?

[Fenster]

Oddschecker is running about

8/13 (-162) Wlad Any Means
5/4 (+120) Wlad by KO, TKO, DQ
7/2 (+350) Wlad by decision

17/10 (+170) Haye Any Means
2/1 (+200) Haye by KO, TKO, DQ
8/1 (+800) Haye by decision

44/1 (+4400) Draw

If you feel 95% certain Wlad will win those aren't bad odds to lay down some scratch. Personally I favor Wlad but only slightly 55/45 or 60/40 maybe and the punters putting down cash tend to agree with me. What looks interesting to me is Haye by decision it is possible, and paying out quite strong.

Good info Killer, I feel 95% certain that Wlad will stop this clown within 8 rounds. Wlad is going to be at his absolute peak for this fight, and ready to make a statement. I believe we're going to see a much more aggressive Wlad, not holding back from throwing his big right as he often times does. I can already tell what Manny Steward is going to tell Wlad right before the fight starts: "Go knock this mother-fucker out".

As for betting, I rarely do unless the odds are right, I wouldn't get a big enough return betting on Wlad unless I bet a shitload of money. What I really like is betting on an underdog, when I think they have a good chance of winning.

Not bad odds is an understatement. You are getting fantastic value.

You believe Wlad's odds should be 1/20 for a KO. The bookies make it 5/4.

$100 bucks on a 1/20 shot returns $105.
$100 bucks on a 5/4 shot returns $225.

IF you truly trust your judgement this is an opportunity not to miss. If you was a betting man you'd think you've won the lottery.

[Hornfinger]

I think the odds are quite poor for a Haye KO win. 2/1? I thought it'd be more like 5/1

Also Haye by decision in germany should be at least 1000/1

[erics44]

if haye wins it is only a minor upset

[Mars_ax]

if haye wins it is only a minor upset

Come on Erics, outside of the dream world you seem to live in when it comes to Haye, this would have to be considered a major upset in the sport of boxing.

[El Kabong]

Have fun being wrong matt

[erics44]

if haye wins it is only a minor upset

Come on Erics, outside of the dream world you seem to live in when it comes Haye, this would have to be considered a major upset in the sport of boxing.

by major what do you mean? liken it to another upset

[marbleheadmaui]

if haye wins it is only a minor upset

Come on Erics, outside of the dream world you seem to live in when it comes Haye, this would have to be considered a major upset in the sport of boxing.

by major what do you mean? liken it to another upset

I was thinking about this last night. Ali over Liston was what I came up with. The oddsmakers don't agree with me, but that's how shocked I'd be. I think Haye is thoroughly overmatched.

This would be one of the 5-6 biggest surprises to me in my boxing life.

Ali over Foreman (I was rooting for it, just didn't think it was possible)
Leon Spinks over Ali
Kirkland Laing over Duran (Kirkland freaking Liang?)
The Ragamuffin Man over Donald Curry
Salvador Sanchez (who?) over Danny Little Red Lopez
Vilomar Fernandez over Alexis Arguello

If Haye wins? This fight goes on that list.

[Fenster]

if haye wins it is only a minor upset

Come on Erics, outside of the dream world you seem to live in when it comes Haye, this would have to be considered a major upset in the sport of boxing.

by major what do you mean? liken it to another upset

I was thinking about this last night. Ali over Liston was what I came up with. The oddsmakers don't agree with me, but that's how shocked I'd be. I think Haye is thoroughly overmatched.

This would be one of the 5-6 biggest surprises to me in my boxing life.

Ali over Foreman (I was rooting for it, just didn't think it was possible)
Leon Spinks over Ali
Kirkland Laing over Duran (Kirkland freaking Liang?)
The Ragamuffin Man over Donald Curry
Salvador Sanchez (who?) over Danny Little Red Lopez
Vilomar Fernandez over Alexis Arguello

If Haye wins? This fight goes on that list.

The 5th/6th biggest upset you've ever seen?

Man... during your life, with your expertise, if you put your money where your mouth is you'd have made an absolute fortune. Trust me.

[Mars_ax]

if haye wins it is only a minor upset

Come on Erics, outside of the dream world you seem to live in when it comes to Haye, this would have to be considered a major upset in the sport of boxing.

by major what do you mean? liken it to another upset

I wouldn't put it in the same category as say, Tyson - Douglas, but Lewis - Rahman I, comes to mind. If Haye KOs Wlad this would have to be one of the bigger HW upsets in years.
I think the main reason you believe it would not be a big upset, is you're overrating Haye and underrating Wlad.

[erics44]

if haye wins it is only a minor upset

Come on Erics, outside of the dream world you seem to live in when it comes to Haye, this would have to be considered a major upset in the sport of boxing.

by major what do you mean? liken it to another upset

I wouldn't put it in the same category as say, Tyson - Douglas, but Lewis - Rahman I, comes to mind. If Haye KOs Wlad this would have to be one of the bigger HW upsets in years.
I think the main reason you believe it would not be a big upset, is you're overrating Haye and underrating Wlad.

a big chunk of the experts in the world think haye can win (maybe as high as 40%)

the only people in the world who thought douglass could win was probably him and his corner and i bet his corner had doubts

i dont think its anywhere near that magnitude

[El Kabong]

Between his fights some people have an odd habit of forgetting just how dominant Wlad can be in the ring.

They have the same simplistic arguments the previous fighter had. "Wlad hasn't fought anyone", "He's boring", "He can't take the punches I'll throw", etc.

Yet Wlad will dissect this guy like all the rest.

Its going to be a shut out baby!

[Fenster]

I think the odds are quite poor for a Haye KO win. 2/1? I thought it'd be more like 5/1

Also Haye by decision in germany should be at least 1000/1

Wlad has been knocked down 50 times. Haye has a 90% KO ratio. And the unlikelihood of a Haye decision is factored into the price.

Personally, I think Haye's odds are too short. Which is making Wlad look worth a bet. However, I certainly won't be backing against Haye.

[Hornfinger]

I'm going to put money on a haye KO and also I'll choose a round.

[JonnyFolds]

I'm going to put money on a haye KO and also I'll choose a round.

You finally found something to say about the actual thread.

Thanks

Obviously as the matchmakers have it.. It is only a minor upset. When is the last time Wlad was listed this close to an opponent odds-wise?
And whoever thinks there is going to be a littel feeling out in the first 3 rounds is drastically wrong. The longer the fight goes the worse chance Haye has. I think he will be able to to box some with Wlad and win exchanges, but he will not win against a downhill-jackhammer jab.

[Mars_ax]

Obviously as the matchmakers have it.. It is only a minor upset. When is the last time Wlad was listed this close to an opponent odds-wise?
And whoever thinks there is going to be a littel feeling out in the first 3 rounds is drastically wrong. The longer the fight goes the worse chance Haye has. I think he will be able to to box some with Wlad and win exchanges, but he will not win against a downhill-jackhammer jab.

The matchmakers aren't going to be able to sell a fight saying that Haye has no chance, it has to seem like Haye is a real threat to tap Wlad's "glass chin" and knock him out. I'll say this for Haye, for as little as he's been able to accomplish at the elite/championship level, he's done a hell of job hyping himself, and promoting this fight.

Unless Wlad just comes out and pulverizes Haye in the 1st couple rounds, (which isn't likely) Haye figures to have his moments. Like i've said in other threads/posts, every time Haye lands a jab or a love tap on Wlad, the Brit announcers and Haye's fans will be pissing themselves with excitement. Hell, Haye might even land a decent wild shot or 2, but ultimately, reality will set in for Haye, and Wlad's skill level, size, experience and punching power will dominate the action.