Showtime’s Super Middleweight Tournament Predictions: Part I

ByAaron King


© Winfried Mausolf

First off, the boxing community is eternally indebted to Ken Hershman, Showtime’s boxing chief. Consider, for a moment, what he has actually managed to do: six fighters with five different promoters across two continents have agree to a 12-fight, round robin tournament over the course of about two years.

It sounds like a cross between message board fantasy and drug-induced delusion. But Hershman and Showtime really did it. They actually got all of the necessary parties—fighters, promoters, managers—to sign on to this thing.

Of course, that does not preclude the possibility that problems will arise. They most certainly will. However, there is great reason to expect that something unprecedented and spectacular will come as a result of Hershman’s inconceivable brilliance.

So, without further ado, let the banter begin. Here is the tentative schedule and point system for the tournament, followed by my predictions on how the first round will turn out.

Oct. 10: Carl Froch vs. Andre Dirrell (England); Arthur Abraham vs. Jermain Taylor (Germany)
Nov. 7: Mikkel Kessler vs. Andre Ward (Oakland)

January 2010: Abraham vs. Dirrell (U.S.)
March 2010: Froch vs. Kessler (Europe)
Spring 2010: Taylor vs. Ward (U.S.)
Summer 2010: Abraham vs. Froch (Europe); Dirrell vs. Ward (U.S.)
Fall 2010: Kessler vs. Taylor (U.S.)
January 2011: Semi-finals
May/June 2011: Final

Win by KO: 3 points; win by decision: 2 points; draw: 1 point

Predictions

Froch vs. Dirrell: This is a very intriguing matchup. Froch does not possess the quickest hands and he can be a bit ponderous with his foot movement. Dirrell, on the other hand, might have the best hand speed of anyone above 147 and is a probably the best pure boxer in this bunch.

But Dirrell has struggled at times with pressure fighters, which Froch undoubtedly is. The Brit has been in deep water before and will have be a huge crowd favorite in his hometown of Nottingham.

Nonetheless, I have a feeling Dirrell will be able to use his speed and size—he’s slightly bigger than Froch—to pull out a decision, one that will tighten up in the late rounds. Dirrell MD 12.

Abraham vs. Taylor: Abraham in Germany? Did Taylor get a tough draw or what? Perhaps it is only fair considering that Taylor is coming off of a classic knockout loss to Froch.

On the surface, “King Arthur” looks to be the likely victor. Abraham, though, does not fit the model of those who traditionally give Taylor his biggest fits—guys who are taller and longer.

Taylor will take the early lead, using his jab and powerful right to keep Abraham at bay. But Abraham is as resilient as they come. He will take control in the second half of the fight en route to a close but clear decision win. Abraham UD 12.

Kessler vs. Ward: Ward’s showdown with Edison Miranda will give him a nice primer for how he may want to handle Kessler. Of course, Kessler is a far better boxer than Miranda, so he shouldn’t rely on that too much.

Ward will have to replicate the technical performance Joe Calzaghe turned in against Kessler two years ago, in collusion with what he did against Miranda. I’m not so sure he can do it against a more polished boxer-puncher like Kessler. The Dane will come out on top of a back and forth fight. Kessler UD 12.

Later in the week, I’ll run down the second and third rounds and preview the playoffs, as it were. Part three will look at the playoffs, and I will predict a champion.

There is sure to be a modicum of dispute, so feel free to shoot me an email at aaronkingme@gmail.com.