Al Bernstein On Boxing: A Prediction? Not On Your Life!

Boxing’s excellent year of 2009 heads for a potential zenith this weekend with the Manny Pacquiao-Miguel Cotto fight.

Anyone who has even a passing interest in the sport should want to watch this match. The true measure of a fight is how many questions it raises when you try to analyze it. This fight has so many interesting elements that it boggles the mind.

The first is the mystique of Pacquiao. There is this almost pervasive force field around him now that suggests that he can do anything. How do you ever really believe he can lose?

He has gone up from 106 pounds at the beginning of his career to 147 to beat Oscar De La Hoya. In the legendary competition between Juan Manuel Marquez, Marco Antonio Barrera , Erik Morales and Pacquiao, Manny came out with the best record in face to face matches with these hall of famers. And along the way he has become boxing’s international superstar. Does all that mean something when he steps into the ring with Cotto?

Then there is the “real welterweight” angle to this story. Cotto is that. This Puerto Rican superstar is very comfortable at 147 pounds and has been there for years since moving up from 140. He is a big puncher at that weight and still has hand speed to throw combinations.

There is a school of thought (and I am in this school) that says he will be the hardest puncher Pacquiao has fought. Mystique or no mystique, Pacman has been put down and also stopped in his career—but that was a while ago.

Then we have the “reinvention” of Pacquiao. Nearing 30 he did something almost no boxer can do at any age, let alone that age—he reinvented himself. With the help of Trainer Freddie Roach he went from as kind of one dimensional slugger to the textbook version of a boxer-puncher.

He incorporated foot movement, combination punching and a better right hand into his game. The “old” Pacquiao would stand no chance against the bigger Cotto. The new Pacquiao is installed as a favorite in the fight.

Finally, there are the “Cotto has slipped” theorists out there. He took a big beating from Antonio Margarito (which may have been an enhanced beating if Margarito’s gloves were tampered with as they were in the Mosley fight). Because of this, many suggest, Cotto is not quite the same fighter he was before.

They point to the way Cotto struggled against Joshua Clottey in their epic battle earlier this year. The chief flaw in this line of thinking is that it devalues Clottey. The reason Clottey fought Cotto to a standstill is that Clottey is a tremendous fighter with strength and skill. I actually thought beforehand that Clottey would win the fight (and many believe he did).

Whether you subscribe to any of the thinking listed in the previous paragraphs, you will certainly believe that this is going to be a terrific match. It’s hard to fathom a better match on paper. This match is being embraced by boxing fans and the media. That is as it should be.

I have been asked by fans, media members and friends who I think will win this fight. The answer is a very truthful one. I have no idea. Really, I do not have what I consider to be a good opinion. The only prediction I will make is that this match should be a barn burner.

While I don’t have a prediction, I do have keys to victory for this match, and for those check out the my preview of this match below in the content from my boxing channel.

I hope whoever wins will fight Floyd Mayweather Jr. next year in what will surely be a giant fight. That would help propel boxing to another banner year. But, that’s for the future. Right now, lets just enjoy this weekend…it should be great.