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Where Will The Top 10 Be At This Time Next Year?
I am going to go straight to the meat of the subject, so to speak. We all know how bad off the once most prestigious division in the sport has been as of late. Well, actually the last couple of years. So we don’t need to talk about how it is declining, how it used to be, and that fighters of this caliber used to rule the rankings…etc. That aspect has been done to death.
We have what we have in the division and for now, there is no other choice but to accept it. Right at this moment we need to focus on the current crop and what’s in store for them in the near future.
For the first time in I don’t know how long, we have no Heavyweight Champion. Yes, we have belt holders but no Ring Champion. Eventually, they will pick one but until that happens we are in limbo with each of the holders of an ABC belt able to claim he is the Real champion. Of course, James Toney will claim he is the Champ even after his loss to Samuel Peter but we all know that Toney just loves to hear himself talk and most of the time it is humorous but never to be taken to seriously. He is still waiting for the judges to re-tabulate the scores from the Jones fight…
What is in store for our current big men? That is any ones guess, really, but I have given it some thought. I have looked at our top guys and made an educated guess at the direction of the division. I have also thought about some of the top guys and put them in any other era and you know what? In my humble opinion only a few make the cut as contenders, let alone champions.
I used the current Boxrec ratings. They go by a different system than many, so I put the fighters in no particular order and made a few adjustments. Only the four champions rank at the top. So, without further ado here is my prediction of where the division will be by the summer of 2007.
The Contenders
10.) Sultan Ibragimov, 19-0 (16): He just had a narrow draw against veteran Ray Austin, giving him his first real test as a pro. The fight told us a lot about the up and comer. The two most important are: one, that he needs to fight more guys like Ray to get more comfortable in there with people who actually make their living as full time fighters and two, he needs to prepare for long nights.
Sultan seemed as though he thought Ray was going to be easy to dispose of. Sultan’s power is not what his record would have you believe. The first time he is in there with a seasoned guy who has more to offer than Austin, Ibragimov will be disposed of easily. The good thing is that he has Panama Lewis training him. Al can fix Sultan’s weaknesses but they need to do it before he steps up again or “The Sultan” will be overthrown and put into exile. My pick by the summer of 07′ is that he will break into the top 10 but has zero chance of ever being on top.
9.) Matt Skelton, 20-1 (18): This guy needs to fight out of Europe. So far, his best has been a 1-1 series with Danny Williams. Skelton has some potential but unless he gets out of the fish bowl and into the pond, he will go belly-up.
I see no real future for him other than as a hometown favorite. He could win a few European titles and possibly make a good run as Commonwealth Champion. But my opinion is that will be as far as he ever goes.
8.) Jameel “Big Time” McCline, 38-6-3 (23): McCline has been there before and had a long stint in the top 10. He has plenty of experience and the power and ability. He also has had a lack of focus at times which has hurt him in the past, along with weight issues but his big losses came against big opposition; when focused he is a dangerous guy.
Recent years have seen him fall to lesser fighters, more due to mental makeup rather than physical ability. If focused, Jameel can jump in the mix and be a major player. The question is, which McCline shows up to fight? I give him a 50/50 chance at becoming a top guy again.
He still is capable physically. He is also the only one stopping himself. Light a flame under McCline and he could be in another title shot situation by end of 07′. But he has to act soon before the window of opportunity breaks and his chances are shattered with it.
7.) Shannon “The Cannon” Briggs, 47-4-1 (41): Hey, this guy has been around a long time and he was once one of the division’s most promising young men but hit a wall a while back. He has managed to bounce back though, winning his last 10 and staying busy for quite some time now. Not all of his recent opposition has been world class, but most have winning records.
Shannon is a strong guy who has put-you-to-sleep power if you don’t take him seriously. His chin is questionable but then again, his two TKO losses weren’t against bums either. Darroll Wilson was a top prospect at the time and the other TKO loss was to Lennox Lewis. Like I said, his latest competition may not be the greatest, but he is doing something important and that is staying busy! Briggs isn’t letting ring rust get a chance to set in, nor is he sitting back waiting for a big fight to fall in his lap.
I think Shannon is more dangerous than many give him credit for and he has an upcoming title shot against Sergei Lyakhovich. I actually pick Shannon as the favorite in that bout due to his experience and power advantage. If he fails, he will be no worse off than he is now. If he does succeed, look at him as a revitalized fighter who will have some big fights coming his way.
My prediction? Look for Shannon to win the title from Sergei, hold onto it with a few easy defenses and get a big money match by end of 2007. After that, he will most likely retire with a respectable career behind him.
6.) Lamon Brewster, 33-3 (29): The man nicknamed “Relentless” is overlooked suddenly. Since his loss to Lyakhovich, it’s like he jumped off the radar in the eyes of the fans and writers. Brewster has never been a big talker who forces you to notice him but he has a decent punch as his 29 KO’s prove. He holds wins over some big names, beating Andrew Golota, Luan Krasniqi and current IBF Champ Wladimir Klitschko, all within the last two years.
Lamon has been fairly consistent during his career and I think this guy is a sleeper. If he takes some time to rebuild and has a few warm up fights, I think he will be in the picture again real soon. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Briggs vs. Brewster by next summer for the WBO belt. Of course, that’s if Briggs can beat Lyakhovich. If not, I would like to see a rematch between Sergei and Brewster. I don’t count Lamon out and after a rest, look for him to be back better than ever by next mid next year.
5.) Hasim “The Rock” Rahman, 41-6-2 (33): He was once one of the most promising fighters in the sport. He shocked us all by knocking out Lennox Lewis. Even though he lost in the rematch, it was a sign of things to come…or so we thought. He has had some ups, downs, and weird events happen to him, for example, the softball size growth on his head during the Evander Holyfield fight.
I thought he had matured as a fighter during his last reign as champion, learning from his mistakes and the draw with James Toney. But I was proven wrong when he ran out of gas and was again knocked by Oleg Maskaev last month.
My prediction? Rahman will continue fighting and end up as another ex champion who doesn’t know when it’s time to quit and ends up a punching bag for perennial contenders. Look for nothing worthwhile from him in the future.
4.) James “Lights Out” Toney, 69-5-3 (43): This guy is someone you could go on about for hours, in both in a good way and a bad. He is as good as he says, yet not quite that good. Catch 22 huh? Well, that’s the enigma of James Toney. He has a who’s who on his resume, and has been in with the best.
He looks like a pork sausage busting out of his casing right now but his skill is far beyond his appearance. I personally believe that he just doesn’t have the pop in his punches that he did at the lower weights to keep the big guy’s in line but, he does have the skill to educate anyone.
If he would lose about 15 lb and add some cardio to his workouts, he would have the gas to throw more punches. I think his lack of output is why he isn’t walking through his opposition. Then again, that is just my opinion but one thing is for certain and this is, he is a force to be dealt with no matter what. He proved that in the Samuel Peter fight; you will not beat him by KO. At least not right now.
Toney is another one of those guys who hampers himself. Except in this case, James is doing it physically, not mentally. Don’t look for him to fade away anytime soon but until he gets in better shape, he will just be the comedy act that comes from being the brunt end of many jokes when it comes to his robust stature.
If Toney should decide to get in the gym, take off a few pounds and improve his stamina, he will end up the top man in the division. But after almost 80 fights, a ton of cash and four world titles in as many divisions, it will be hard to convince him to do so.
3.) Calvin “The Boxing Banker” Brock, 29-0 (22): Brock is respectable; a genuinely nice guy that can fight. Brock has shown that you can be a gentleman and a warrior at the same time, but the book is still out on him in the terms of the hunger aspect. I think he needs a good, tough fight to show what he is really made of because I don’t think he has had his whiskers tested yet, so that may be a weakness we don’t know about.
Other than that, he is a sound, hard hitting, decently skilled fighter who always comes in shape ready to fight. It would be nice to see him win a title and I think he would be a credit to the sport to have him as champion. The real test will come when he faces Wladimir Klitschko in November as most of the questions about him will be answered in that bout.
If I had to predict how that fight will go, I say that he either wins easy or gets blown out. No long hard night with the fear of a bad decision. Even if Brock loses, he has a future ahead of him. Come September, 2007 look to see him with one of the straps around his waist. Maybe not the IB,F but I say one of the four world titles will belong to him.
2.) Sam Peter, 27-1 (22): The Nigerian Nightmare. Man, is this guy strong! I compare him to a younger Ike Ibeabuchi. It’s like every punch hurts from head to toe when he lands. Even his jabs were moving James Toney backwards and his jaw isn’t too bad either. Peter was rocked in the Klitschko fight, but that was after how many rounds? And Klitschko can bang.
Peter has shown his lack of experience and a one dimension style at times. In the Klitschko fight, he seemed perplexed that Wlad kept getting up from knockdowns. Toney had Peter confused at times with counters, but Sam is young and at 26 years of age, still has a lot to learn.
One thing I like about Peter, as with Calvin Brock, is that he is a nice guy. This kid almost couldn’t come up with a bad thing to say about Toney after being insulted about everything from his home country to his personal life, during the pre fight build up. Even after the fight, when the media asked if he had any hard feelings about Toney’s comments, Peter said “no”.
If this guy develops a better jab and some defensive skills, everyone had better watch out. The only thing I can say bad about Peter is the fact that he needs more experience in big fights. He needs to learn how to adjust and become a counter puncher. After that, he will rule for as long as he wants. I see big things in his future, as long as he works on those two things. I pick him to KO Maskaev easy in their upcoming fight. By Summer 2007, Peter will have a world title or two on his waist and I’ll bet my house on it.
1.) Chris Byrd, 39-3-1 (20): No one wants to fight Chris Byrd; he makes everyone look bad. Byrd is slick and annoying in the ring. He punches like a powder puff, yes, but his game other than that is as well rounded as it gets. As long as he stays out of the line of fire with the big punchers, he is OK.
Against David Tua, Byrd showed that as long as he boxes, he is one of the hardest guys out there to beat in any division. If he dropped a few pounds and fought as a cruiserweight, he would be untouchable. I don’t know what Byrd’s plans are for the future, but if and when he returns, as long as he goes in the ring and fights his fight, he will remain in the top 5.
If he takes on one of the lesser champions, he could win back a title with no problems. I just wonder how much desire he has left to do it. Before I can make an opinion, I need to see his next fight and how much starch the KO loss to Klitschko took from his heart. Byrd is up in the air right now. He has the goods, but does he still want to use them?
The Champions
Sergei “The White Wolf” Lyakhovich, 23-1 (14): As the WBO Champion who on title from Lamon Brewster, Sergei’s two best opponents are Dominick Guinn and Brewster, but he has the most lightly regarded of all the titles. The young fighter has yet to really mainstream himself like his European counterparts. Sergei is a guy who has some skills but is not the type of fighter who will awe you or make other top heavyweights want to avoid him.
There is really little in his pro career to talk about other than his two wins over Brewster and Guinn. In time, it is possible that he will be a force to be reckoned with in the division but for now, he is just another beltholder. In his upcoming defense, he will face Shannon Briggs, a veteran who has been around the block and in with some of the best. Briggs will show us whether or not Sergei is a serious threat to the division.
If the fight was taking place today, and I had to put money down, I would go with Briggs. If Lyakhovich does make it past Briggs, I give him little chance against any of the other top guys on the list. I could be wrong, but until he proves me so, I say that he is nothing but a backup dancer in the stage of big men by this time next year.
Oleg “The Big O” Maskaev, 33-5 (26): The current WBC Champion who won title from Hasim Rahman. The WBC belt is probably the most prestigious of the big four, although it is not always the best fighter who holds it. In a repeat performance against Rahman, Oleg became champion by almost knocking Hasim through the ropes again. If this were any other time, Maskaev would have not even gotten a shot at the belt. Most of the reason he was chosen is down to promotion; it was an easy fight to hype up due to their first meeting ending in the fashion it did.
Trouble is, Rahman was not the most impressive champion and Maskaev has seen better days as well. He was KO’d in every one of his losses and has taken on limited competition in recent years.
Maskaev must face Samuel Peter in his next defense and I think that the young, strong Peter will manhandle Oleg and KO him before we get comfy in our seats. I suggest you open your beers before the bell or you will miss the whole fight.
Maskaev is a talented fighter on the way down who stumbled into the title to be brutally honest. But he has always been a hard worker who always gives it his all in the ring and it is nice to see him have a belt before the end of his career. I think he has earned it more than most out there; he is a better fighter than Lyakhovich or Valuev, but not the most durable if you know what I mean. I think that by the summer of 07′, Oleg will be retired, satisfied with what he has accomplished in his career.
Nikolai “The Beast From The East” Valuev, 44-0 (32): The WBA Champion who won the title from John Ruiz. He’s big… he’s big..he’s…well I said that already didn’t I? Valuev is a guy that there isn’t much to tell about. He stands over 7 feet tall and weights over 300 lb.
He has fought nothing but bums and was given a gift, in the opinion of many, against a poor champion in John Ruiz, who for once, I give credit to for taking the fight to Valuev. Nikolai is slow, not the most skillful guy out there and add to that for a man of his size, his power is not impressive.
Once we get a guy who can figure out a way to stay inside and keep busy, I think Valuev will be taken down. If Vitali Klitschko was still around, I believe this guy would have been disposed of long ago and I’ll go one further and say that Valuev would have never become champion.
Valuev is a freak show with nothing to offer in the ring, like the oversize fighters of the past such as Primo Carnera, and he will fold shortly. But this, so far, has been easier said than done. Put Valuev in with Peter Or Wladimir Klitschko and “The Beast” will be tamed.
Wladimir “Dr Steelhammer” Klitschko, 46-3 (41): IBF Champion, who won title from Chris Byrd. He is fast, strong, skilled and gets wobbly if there is a breeze. The younger of the two Klitschko Brothers, was always the one that was considered better of the two but we had no idea how fragile he was until he met Corrie Sanders.
All of his losses have come by TKO and he has folded under pressure until recently. He got up three times against the power hitter Sam Peters to win a UD. What does that tell you? Well, one, is that he is learning how to deal with situations when he has been shaken and instead of panicking, he is learning how to buy time and clear his head. Most of this is a credit to Emanuel Steward and his teachings. Second, it shows how dominate Klitschko must he have been during the rest of the fight.
Wlad is a complete fighter who has yet to reach his potential. In due time, he will become even better than what he is now. With the exception of three or four contests, every fight that he has won, he did almost with no effort.
With the stamina issue being dealt with and the composure being upheld, Klitschko is becoming what everyone thought he would years ago; a dominant heavyweight. In two more years, as long as he stays with Steward, Wlad could own this division. There will be Wladimir and then the rest of the division. This is assuming that he stays on track and like I mentioned before, stays with Steward.
The sky is the limit for this young man. My guess is that by 2007, he will be the Ring Champion and the man to beat. Right now, he is still building, but as far as potential is concerned, Klitschko’s is unlimited.
By this time next year, half of the fighters on this list will have faded away and half will have jumped to the next level. We have freaks, lucky punchers and guys in the right place at the right time. There are also veterans who don’t know enough to jump in while the getting is good and some who don’t know when to get out.
Peter, Brock and Klitschko are the only ones who have a promising future ahead, while Toney just doesn’t know what else to do to pass his time. It is a hard division to be in right now; here is no glory even when you reach the top. To be considered great, you have to beat great fighters and at the moment the heavyweight division has none.
So, we are stuck with the mundane and the ordinary, with a couple of diamonds in the rough that may already be flawed. I have no idea if I am right or wrong about the futures of these guys; I’m just guessing. The sad part of it all is that there is no one out there to make you hope or even pay attention to.
So, like with a roll of the dice, I have to wait and see what my predictions bring. Will I get a seven or eleven? Or will I have to see if I can make point by watching the guys above pan out or fade out? Either way, it doesn’t matter. The whole division is craps!
