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I called it wrong last weekend, thinking that George Groves would evade the right hand that Carl Froch detonated on his chin, but there was really only ever going to be two trains of thought with that fight.
The first being that Groves would box smart and pot-shot his way to victory and the second was that Froch would knock him out at some point due to the fact that he couldn’t outbox Groves.
So when it happened, I don’t think many people were too surprised; I mean, there was always that threat.
And it was a beautiful punch, easily the best right hand Froch has ever thrown.
With Cotto vs Martinez coming up this Saturday, there are plenty more thought patterns to explore, and I need to redeem myself after writing off Carl Froch.
Will Cotto be able to tough it out with a true Middleweight? After so many injuries, will Martinez’s body hold up to Cotto’s assaults? Who hits harder? Does Cotto struggle with southpaws?
Martinez has been dropped in each of his last three fights, is his punch resistance fading or are his legs not getting him out of the way like they used to?
Cotto has faced the better opposition, but at lighter weights so his punch probably carried more sting, but he says he drained himself to get there, and he still lost when he stepped up against Pacquiao at welter and Mayweather at light middle.
Those losses are not as telling as the Austin Trout loss though. Trout boxed very well; a tough, slick southpaw, he stuck to the game plan and did the job.
So effectively, all Martinez needs to do is mount the right fight, and he will win.
Which Martinez will show up though? Will his knee, which he has twice torn ligaments and had surgery on, hold up? His shoulder required surgery after his last fight, and he broke his hands.
His body is clearly showing the strains of being a professional athlete and against Cotto, he will need to be firing on all cylinders.
And Cotto is saying all the right things…the pressure fighter will be back, the Cotto of old, the left hook to the body will be flowing free…and, if the Cotto of old does show up, surely Martinez, who has been out of the ring for a year, will crumble.
What with there being so many variables, and me still sore after last week’s analysis proved wrong, I will simply say that if Martinez comes to the ring 100% and stays like that all night then he will stay on the outside, in and out and take the points victory.
If, however, he does not stay 100% all night down to Cotto’s pressure or the Cotto of old does show up looking to take apart the middleweight king, then I don’t think Martinez could withstand such punishment.
