Boxing Preview Analysis: Joe Calzaghe vs. Bernard Hopkins

© Tom Hogan/Golden Boy Promotions

Finally, it’s upon us.

A fight that has been years, not months, in the making finally takes places this Saturday at the Thomas and Mack Centre in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Its a fight at light heavyweight between two men with a combined 41 successful defences of their world titles.

Welshman Joe Calzaghe will be attempting to stop a disappointing run of results in Camp Calzaghe. After world title defeats for stablemates Gavin Rees and Enzo Maccarinelli, the undefeated World Super Middleweight Champion will be desperate not to make it third time unlucky.

Bernard Hopkins stands between Joe and a place in boxing history. A pro now for 20 years, Hopkins won the middleweight title at the third attempt, stopping Segundo Mercardo in seven back in 1995, having lost and drawn previous title attempts.

Hopkins would continue to make solid but unspectacular defences of his world title and was seen as a very good if not glamorous world champion. In other words, he was an excellent trade figher but nowhere near superstar status or known to the casual fan.

In 2001, a tournament was arranged to try and find the first undisputed world 160 pound champion in nearly fifteen years. Hopkins, the IBF Champion, would meet WBC rival Keith Holmes with the winner fighting later in the year for the undisputed title.

Such was Hopkins lack of box office power at the time that the fight was held in the smaller Madison Square Garden Arena in New York. In an uninspiring bout, Hopkins was the far superior fighter, overwhelming and outclassing Holmes over the 12 round duration. But little did we know that just around the corner would be superstar status for “The Executioner”.

The other bout in the middleweight tournament saw WBA/IBF Light Middleweight Champion Felix Trinidad stop WBA Middleweight Champion William Joppy in five to set up Hopkins vs. Trinidad for the undisputed championship.

If truth be told, many people that night in September, 2001 expected the coronation of Trinidad to be a foregone conclusion. However, Hopkins shocked the world, outclassing and handing Trinidad a beating, stopping the Puerto Rican in the 12th round. Hopkins had reached another level.

Frustratingly, Hopkins would only fight sporadically over the next couple of years due to contractual difficulties, although he did manage to outclass former champion William Joppy over 12 rounds in December, 2003.

The next superfight for Hopkins would be against mega-star Oscar De La Hoya, who held the WBO version of the middleweight title. However, when they met in September, 2004, the smaller “Golden Boy” was no match for “The Executioner”, being halted with a body shot in the 9th.

After achieving history with a 20th defence against Briton Howard Eastman, Hopkins would lose the middleweight title to unbeaten American Jermain Taylor on points in July, 2005. When Hopkins lost the rematch in December, 2005, many thought this was the end for the Philadelphian.

In the last two years, Hopkins has enjoyed a new lease of life at 175 pounds. In June, 2006, Hopkins outclassed current IBF king Antonio Tarver and last year, outscored former light middleweight champion Winky Wright, also on points, at 170 pounds.

For Calzaghe, this is the Welshman’s first fight on American soil. In fact, it’s only his third fight outside the British Isles.

Undefeated in 44 bouts since he turned professional in 1993 and undefeated as an amateur and pro since 1990, Calzaghe in the past has seen big fight after big fight fall through. But similarly to Hopkins, he seems to be getting the big fights later on in his career.

After winning the British title in only his 14th professional fight, Calzaghe was soon pitched in for the vacant WBO Super Middleweight championship against former champion Chris Eubank in October, 1997. Calzaghe did the unthinkable, flooring the rock chinned Eubank in round one and in an exciting scrap he outslugged Eubank to win over the 12 round course.

Injuries and cancellation of fights would mar Calzaghe’s reign. A close call against Robin Reid in February 1999 gave the critics ammunition. In fact, missed opportunities were the story of Joe’s career at that point when a proposed US debut on the big De Le Hoya vs. Trinidad bill in September 1999 fell though. At that time, Joe was harshly being called “Sicknote” by certain members of the press.

The new millennium, however, would finally see a reversal in fortune for Joe and we finally got to see the class we, the believers, all knew he had as champion.

August, 2000 saw Joe demolish respected American challenger Omar Sheika in five rounds. December of the same year saw Joe defeat good friend and former champion Richie Woodhall in 10 entertaining rounds.

Americans Charles Brewer and Byron Mitchell were outpointed and stopped respectively in thrillers in 2002 and 2003. Even with these wins, Joe always seemed to still have a point to prove.

Jeff Lacy was seen as the man to finally end Calzaghe’s reign when a unification matchup was made for March, 2006. Lacy was made favourite when the two met in Manchester. This was the fight when the “slapper” Calzaghe would supposedly finally be exposed.

In 12 of the most one sided rounds ever, Calzaghe battered Lacy from pillar to post, winning every minute of every round to pick up another belt.

Calzaghe’s good run continued last November when he picked up the last two belts remaining at the weight, defeating a game Mikkel Kessler over 12 rounds in front of 50,000 fans in Cardiff.

So what happens on Saturday night?

Hopkins is known to handle southpaws extremely well. In fact, he totally outclassed Tarver when they met a couple of years ago. Joe, however, I think will be a lot busier than Tarver.

I’ve got a feeling that this is one of those fights that could get messy and awkward at times. For Joe to be successful, he’s got to try and prevent Hopkins from messing him about. That, however, is easier said than done as “The Executioner” is a master strategist.

One always gets the feeling though that Hopkins could get outworked down the stretch. In the early rounds, I feel that Hopkins might try and end the bout early as Joe has proven stamina with a high workrate over the distance.

That being said, Hopkins’ swings could play into Joe’s hands early on as long as the Welshman doesn’t leave himself open a la the Mitchell fight in 2003. Hopkins believes he is good enough to deck Joe if that happens.

That being said, for me, it’s a fight that goes into the late rounds or even the distance. Not wanting to sound like a cynic, but I feel Joe will have to win the rounds clearly if he’s to be sure to get a decision in Vegas.

I think Joe will win these rounds clearly and his workrate, I feel, will pull him though. Don’t forget Joe is capable over throwing 1000 punches plus over 12 rounds.

That will be the deciding factor in my opinion and I think Joe will get the decision in Vegas. But at a push, he might even stop Hopkins late.