Tonight, Gennady Golovkin (33-0) faces off against Canadian puncher David Lemieux (34-2-0) in what is being hailed as the next Marvin Hagler vs. Thomas Hearns.
How many times have we heard that before?
Why are people so excited for this fight to come about? Well, the knockout statistics of these two are very high, Golovkin with a 91% KO ratio and Lemieux with 86%.
However, we know that there is much more to being a good or great fighter than just being able to punch, it helps, don’t get me wrong, but it is not the be all and end all.
Whenever the Hagler/Hearns statement is made, I feel dubious. And, if one were to look at this fight realistically,' you would say Lemieux has a punchers chance.
A puncher's chance can be referred to as a write off, in some cases. or a great hope in others. It all depends on who the opponent is, and in this case, Lemieux has someone who matches him in natural punching power, has better footwork, is a better boxer and someone who has fought better opponents.
I probably look like I am being a little unfair to Lemieux here; he can box but we have never seen him do it on the back foot, he always comes forward and brings the fight.
That's no bad thing, you may say, and no, it's not for the viewer but when you have someone like Golovkin in front of you, some adaption may be necessary.
Lemieux has fought good opposition, in Gabriel Rosado and Hassan N'Dam N'Jikam, two decent operators in the division with a stoppage on one and points win over the other.
Look at Lemieux's losses however; Joachim Alcine and Marco Antonio Rubio. He lost on points to Alcine and was stopped by Rubio.
One could argue that the Canadian probably learned more from being stopped by Rubio than he did from a win. He now will know when to turn it on and not load up on every punch as the stoppage came more from exhaustion than from Rubio's punches.
But as a counter argument, maybe Lemieux met someone who could stand up to his punches and weathered the storm, only to turn it up in the second half of the fight.
However you look at it, Golovkin fought Rubio too, and stopped him in the second round. OK, Rubio didn’t make weight and lost the interim title before he stepped in the ring, but the fact remains, Golovkin blew him away; Rubio wanted none of it.
A couple of weeks ago someone brought the old adage of “when an irresistible force meets an immovable object”, which I thought rather fitting for this fight, until I saw Neil deGrasse Tyson’s tweet this morning which read, “The irresistible force beats the immovable object every time, just up the force until the immovable object is obliterated.”
This, I found even more on point.
We know that Golovkin can move up through the gears excellently, and has a wide variety of shots that bring danger, and I predict that Lemieux, as brave as he will be on the night, just won’t have enough to stand up to Golovkin when the champ goes through the gears.
Unless Golovkin gets caught with a shot early and doesn’t recover, I think "Triple G" stops Lemieux between rounds eight and ten.